Gate News, March 11 — PolyBeats monitoring shows that on the prediction market Polymarket, a high-confidence address in the Iran market invested $4,000 in the past six hours, betting that “U.S. military will enter Iran in March.” The opening average price was 30.8¢, now at 32.5¢.
Despite recent signals from U.S. President Trump and officials indicating that “military operations are essentially complete” and the situation is cooling down, attempting to stabilize soaring international oil prices and market sentiment, from a military perspective, a simple long-range airstrike often cannot completely destroy deeply buried high-level nuclear facilities or effectively control enriched uranium stockpiles.
Combined with recent dense takeoffs and landings of C-130 tactical transport aircraft at bases around Erbil in Iraq, and media reports that the U.S. and Israel are exploring plans to seize nuclear materials, market speculation suggests that even if the U.S. declares “victory” on a macro level, U.S. special forces may still need to carry out short-term ground infiltration, physical seizure, or target assessment missions.
Based on this trader’s past trading profile, they are not betting on whether the event will actually happen, but rather engaging in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at certain points after opening a position. Account address: 0xe49c480540868e09725fb5743980ab3341ca481b.
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