Experts warn that sufficiently powerful quantum computers could break elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), potentially threatening the security of crypto networks.
According to Ledger’s CTO, Charles Guillemet, blockchain security currently relies heavily on ECC—the foundation of public and private key systems. Although not an immediate risk, once quantum computers reach enough computational power, ECC could be broken, allowing private keys to be derived from exposed public keys.
Guillemet notes that the view that Bitcoin’s public keys “generally do not appear on-chain” is inaccurate. In reality, public keys are exposed when users make spending transactions, and many keys have been publicly available since early on due to pay-to-public-key (P2PK) mechanisms or address reuse.
In light of this threat, he emphasizes that a “wait-and-see” strategy is not suitable, as preparations need to start early—before quantum capabilities become a reality.
The good news is that post-quantum cryptography (PQC) has developed quantum-resistant signature schemes, mainly in two categories: hash-based and lattice-based. Hash-based schemes are large, conservative, and well-studied; while lattice-based schemes are more modern, scalable, but lack long-term proven security.
However, Guillemet points out that the challenge is not only mathematical but also involves securely implementing these algorithms in hardware signers, especially under resource constraints of Secure Elements. Ledger is currently testing pure software implementation of PQC within Secure Elements, but RAM limitations and computational costs remain significant barriers.
Some experts estimate that around 7 million BTC could be at risk in an advanced quantum scenario, including about 1 million BTC believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. With a total circulating supply of approximately 19.99 million BTC, early coins with publicly exposed on-chain private keys could become targets if cryptography is broken.
The crypto community has already begun taking action. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently outlined a roadmap to protect the Ethereum network from long-term quantum risks.
While quantum computers capable of breaking modern cryptography do not yet exist, experts believe early preparation is essential to ensure the long-term security of global digital asset infrastructure.
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