In 2025, the holding structure of Bitcoin (BTC) has shown intriguing changes. On-chain data indicates that overall market volatility has decreased, but capital flows and structural shifts are becoming key variables influencing BTC price trends.
According to Santiment data, since July, the number of retail wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC has increased by approximately 3.3%, while whale wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have only grown slightly by 0.36%. This clear contrast reflects that after the price surged to a local high, some large holders chose to reduce their positions at high levels, while retail investors continued to buy the dip during the correction phase.
Meanwhile, throughout most of 2025, Bitcoin has been continuously flowing out of exchanges, indicating that more BTC is being transferred to long-term holding addresses. Even as prices fluctuate within a range, this trend remains unchanged, leading to a certain “disconnection” between Bitcoin supply and price performance.
Unlike in the past, retail buying power has strengthened but has not immediately translated into price increases. One important reason is the change in the “water reservoir” of funds. In the second half of the year, the supply of ERC-20 stablecoins has continued to rise, suggesting that capital remains within the crypto market but is mostly in a wait-and-see or standby mode.
Additionally, trading focus is shifting from spot markets to derivatives. The proportion of futures and perpetual contract trading volume has increased, and the impact of open interest (OI) on short-term BTC prices has become more significant. Naturally, the importance of spot demand has been partly replaced by leveraged trading, which also amplifies market volatility.
In the year-end market, forced liquidations are occurring frequently, intensifying Bitcoin’s price fluctuations and further highlighting that the current market structure is heavily influenced by positions and leverage.
Looking ahead to 2026, 2025 may mark a more mature phase for the Bitcoin market. Future trends are more likely to reward patience and long-term allocation rather than emotional chasing of gains. Prices will eventually return to a reasonable range, though the pace may slow down—and this may not necessarily be a bad thing.
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