2026 New Year, Happy New Year Daytime Last night, I closed profits at 3017-2965. I don't have any positions at the moment. Recently, the market has been volatile, and the trend has become uncertain. Looking for opportunities to take on big positions again.

#Strategy加码BTC配置 $SOL recently experienced this wave of market movement, and I chose to stay on the sidelines. Yesterday, there was a sudden plunge that many didn't anticipate, and friends who jumped in directly probably had their mentality shattered. Instead of passively taking hits, it's better to recognize the situation in advance — sometimes holding no position is the best risk management. The market will always give opportunities to those who are prepared; there's no need to jump in on every wave.

🔍 The Impact of the Latest Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes #2026CryptoOutlook $ 🧭 Overview The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal significant disagreements among policymakers regarding the path and pace of interest rate cuts. This conflicting stance has a direct impact on Bitcoin(BTC)—currently priced at 88,489.41 USDT—and the broader risk asset environment. While the minutes confirm a cautious attitude towards easing policies, they also maintain a medium-term dovish tone, implying that liquidity conditions may gradually improve by 2025, supporting BTC and other high-beta assets such as Ethereum(ETH) (currently priced at 2,974.99 USDT) and Solana(SOL) (125.85 USDT) for long-term holders. ⚙️ Key Analytical Dimensions 1. Monetary Policy Uncertainty Divergent Views: The minutes show at least three dissenting votes within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), reflecting disagreements over whether inflation progress is sufficient to support further rate cuts. Some officials favor maintaining higher rates longer to assess lagging effects, while others support preemptive easing to avoid economic stagnation. Market Impact: This uncertainty has led to a strengthening dollar, exerting short-term pressure on risk assets. For Bitcoin, this means short-term volatility as institutional traders rebalance positions between cryptocurrencies and traditional safe-haven assets. Despite today's weakness, ongoing ETF capital inflows(such as the $3.5 billion inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs on December 30) indicate that smart money still views Bitcoin as a long-term asset with value amid policy uncertainty. Cross-Cryptocurrency Dynamics: Ethereum shows resilience, with institutions like Bitmine( staking over 460,000 ETH worth approximately $137 billion). This long-term commitment suggests that even if macro tightening persists, demand for yield assets like ETH and SOL may offset Bitcoin’s downside pressure. 2. Risk Sentiment and Market Psychology Fear-Driven Environment: The fear and greed index stands at 20, indicating a risk-averse market. However, historical data shows that Bitcoin often accumulates during high fear states. Short-term holders’ Bitcoin supply has shrunk to about 5.87 million, implying a transfer to long-term holders—usually a bullish structural signal. Altcoin Rotation: Bitwise announced applications for 11 new crypto ETFs, covering assets like AAVE, SUI, and NEAR, highlighting institutional interest in diversification. SUI is currently trading at 1.4396 USDT, and if risk sentiment stabilizes post-Fed, it could benefit from continued ETF momentum. Observed Correlations: Ethereum and Solana’s RSI are both around 53-54, indicating consolidation rather than collapse. Their relative stability compared to Bitcoin reinforces the view that the crypto market is gradually decoupling from the most aggressive macro risks. 3. Liquidity and Institutional Capital Flows Fed’s Mixed Signals: The lack of a clear rate-cut trajectory means reliance on economic data remains. Each release of CPI and employment data will serve as liquidity triggers. This “data-dependent” stance may sustain moderate volatility but favors medium-term buyers. ETF Mechanisms: Institutional capital flows are crucial. After Bitwise’s new ETF applications, capital inflows into Bitcoin began to rebound, indicating increased demand for rebalancing ahead of potential easing policies. If the probability of a rate cut in March reaches 45%, the pace of inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs could accelerate, stabilizing prices at current levels. Technical Perspective: Bitcoin’s MACD remains in a golden cross state, with RSI around 52, indicating neutral momentum. This suggests prices may consolidate between 86,000 and 89,500 USDT, suitable for positioning during reduced volatility. Ethereum’s triangle pattern near 2950-3000 USDT confirms similar uncertainty, with a breakout possible once macro conditions clarify. 4. Macro-Economic Correlations Tech Assets Linkage: The Fed meeting minutes influenced tech stocks and digital assets. The cautious pullback in the Nasdaq reflects rising valuation concerns; similarly, risk easing has caused a brief slowdown in cryptocurrencies. However, institutions continue to buy on dips—such as Metaplanet acquiring 4,279 BTC. This resilience suggests that if policy shifts dovishly, underlying demand remains strong. Stablecoin Resilience: The market cap of stablecoins hit a record $300 billion(USDT + USDC), indicating robust on-chain liquidity independent of Fed actions. This liquidity layer acts as a structural buffer, allowing quick transfers into Bitcoin or Ethereum once macro conditions ease. 💡 Summary and Strategic Insights In summary, the latest Fed meeting minutes inject short-term caution into the crypto market but maintain a medium-term optimistic outlook. For Bitcoin, despite the price temporarily compressing to around 88,489 USDT, ongoing ETF capital inflows amid policy uncertainty confirm continued institutional accumulation. Ethereum demonstrates strong fundamentals through staking expansion and circulating supply reduction, serving as a reliable hedge against long-term stagnation. As growth layer assets, Solana and SUI are expected to outperform if the March Fed meeting sparks risk appetite and liquidity return. From a strategic perspective, investors should view Fed hesitation as an opportunity to deploy capital into quality digital assets during pullbacks, focusing on Bitcoin as the primary exposure while leveraging Ethereum and Solana’s active ecosystems and institutional adoption signals for diversification.✨ Overall, while internal Fed disagreements drive short-term volatility, they also lay the groundwork for a slow but steady liquidity rebound by 2025, positioning Bitcoin and leading Layer-1 assets as the main beneficiaries of the eventual easing cycle.