https://www.gate.com/activities/community-vote-2025?ref=VVLABG0OVG&refType=1&refUid=42257839&ref_type=165&utm_cmp=xjdtmcgP $BTC $ETH $GT #My2026FirstPost

(January 1st, 12:16 ETH approximately $2,960) Looking at the current technical situation of ETH, the daily chart remains in a sideways and slightly bearish pattern, the 4-hour chart is relatively neutral, and the hourly chart shows some signs of weakness. Considering the thin liquidity during the holiday period, focus on the performance within the 2,940 to 2,990 range in the short term, with 2,980 and 2,940 being the most critical levels. From a price structure perspective, the resistance levels above are sequentially 2,980–3,000 (where the 4-hour upper band and a key round number coincide with double resistance), followed by the medium-term resistance zone of 3,075–3,110, with a previous high at 3,150. Support levels below are, from near to far, 2,940 (intraday weak support), 2,915–2,920 (4-hour lower band), 2,830 (medium-term support), and then the strong consensus support zone of 2,750–2,700. Technical indicators also confirm this assessment. On the daily chart, the price is under pressure below the 30-day moving average, RSI is around 47, indicating a neutral zone, MACD has a death cross, and trading volume is shrinking, suggesting the downward momentum is weakening but has not yet turned bullish. The 4-hour chart is mostly consolidating, with RSI and price both neutral, showing no clear direction. The hourly RSI leans bullish, with a small MACD golden cross, indicating short-term bullish momentum, but this strength can be easily disrupted by liquidity. Regarding trading ideas: for intraday short-term trading, consider range-bound buy low, sell high strategies. Accumulate longs in batches around 2,940–2,950, with a stop-loss at 2,930, targeting 2,980; if resistance is encountered at 2,980, consider light short positions with a stop at 3,000 and a target back at 2,950. Keep each position below 10%, and trade quickly to avoid liquidity traps. For medium-term trading over 1–2 weeks, build positions gradually within 2,915–2,950, keeping total exposure below 30%. Set a defensive stop at 2,830; if broken, reduce positions. Once the price stabilizes above 3,000, consider adding positions with targets at 3,075–3,110. The final safeguard in this strategy is 2,750, which is an absolute stop-loss level that must not be breached.

Technical Indicators (Key Signals on the Market Chart) - 1-Hour Level - RSI(14): 55.2 (Neutral leaning bullish) - MACD: Histogram shrinking, bullish crossover expected, bullish momentum beginning to emerge - Support: $2,970; Resistance: $2,990 - 4-Hour Level - RSI: 52.7 (Balanced between bulls and bears) - MACD: Winding around the zero line, weak momentum, no clear direction - Support Band: $2,940~$2,950; Resistance Band: $2,980~$3,000 - Daily Level - 5/10 Moving Average Golden Cross Support, price above moving averages - MACD: Weak momentum but no death cross, in early stage of rebound after bottoming out - Key Levels: $3,000 (Strong resistance), $2,900 (Strong support) Three, On-Chain Real-Time Data (Last 6 hours, as of 12:40) - Basic Network - Current Block Height: 24,127,320+; Average Block Time: ~12 seconds - TPS: 17.5~19.8, stable network operation - Unconfirmed Transactions: approximately 77,582 (average over 1 hour) - Gas Fees - Median Gas Price: 0.6657 Gwei (≈$0.02), extremely low transaction costs - Average Transaction Fee: 0.17 USD per transaction, down **-5.51%** compared to 24 hours ago - Total Transaction Fees over 6 hours: approximately 27 ETH (≈$80,500) - Transactions and Addresses - On-chain Transaction Volume over 6 hours: about 365,000 transactions, stable on-chain activity - Active Addresses: approximately 182,500, up **+2.1%** in the last 6 hours - Large Transfers (>100 ETH): 1,217 transactions in 6 hours, active fund flow - Staking and Supply - Total Staked ETH: 35.21M ETH (accounting for 29.17% of circulating supply), no significant change - Staking Yield: approximately 4.7%, stable - New ETH Staked in 6 hours: about 900 ETH, deflation rate stable Four, Latest Market News 1. Record Trading Volume: On December 31, the mainnet daily trading volume exceeded 2.2 million transactions, ecosystem activity surged 2. Contract Growth: 8.7 million new smart contracts created in Q4, settlement layer dominance solidified 3. Year-End Volatility: ETH repeatedly fluctuated in the **$2,900~$3,000** range, with clear resistance at the $3,000 mark, intense bulls and bears competition 4. ETF Expectations: Market continues to focus on spot ETH ETF developments, potentially a price catalyst in 2026 Five, Simulation Position Operation Tips - Short-term Strategy: Range trading, buy low below $2,970, reduce positions above $2,990, stop loss at $2,940 - Risk Warning: Be cautious about chasing highs before $3,000 breakout, watch out for volatility amplification due to holiday liquidity shortages - On-Chain Signals: Gas fees remain low, suitable for contract interactions; increased large transfers, monitor institutional fund movements