Bitcoin may break through $80k in May, but the difficulty is high, making it a "possibility, uncertainty" situation.

1. Current Price and Status (May 4th)

• Current price: around $78,400

• Early in the month, it briefly surged to $79,500, but repeatedly faced resistance and pulled back between $79,000–$79,500

• Overall fluctuating in the range of $75,700–$79,100

2. Positive Factors (Supporting Breakthrough of $80,000)

1. Continuous inflow into institutional ETFs

◦ On May 1st, spot BTC ETF net inflow was $630 million (year-to-date high)

◦ Giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and others continue to increase holdings

2. Technical indicators are relatively strong

◦ Monthly and weekly charts still show an upward trend

◦ Key support levels held at $75,000–$77,000

3. Market sentiment

◦ Most analysts expect the high point in May to be in the $80,000–$85,000 range

3. Negative/Resistance Factors (Difficult to Break Through)

1. $80,000 is a strong resistance

◦ There is heavy selling pressure (“sell wall”) in options and futures at $80,000–$81,000

◦ Three failed attempts to reach $79,500, weakening bullish momentum

2. Declining trading volume

◦ Spot buying is weak, rebound relies on futures support

3. Macro uncertainties

◦ Expectations of rate cuts, geopolitical issues, oil prices, and other factors still cause disturbances

4. Three Scenarios (Probability Assessment)

1. Break through $80k and stabilize (Probability: about 30%–40%)

◦ Conditions: Continuous ETF inflows, weekly close above $80,000

◦ Target: $82,000–$85,000

2. Attempt to rise but fail, range-bound movement (Probability: about 40%–50%)

◦ Repeatedly testing $79,000–$79,500 but unable to break above $80,000

◦ Likely to trade sideways between $76,000–$79,500 within the month

3. Pullback and decline (Probability: about 10%–20%)

◦ Fall below support at $75,700, dropping to $70,000–$73,000

5. One-sentence conclusion

There is a chance to reach $80,000 in May, but a sustained and effective breakthrough is unlikely; more probable is a pattern of “repeated testing, quick pullbacks, and range-bound trading.” #美国寻求战略比特币储备