4.30 Gold Intraday Market Outlook — Shiyuan’s View

In the early morning, the Federal Reserve’s April interest rate decision was released as scheduled. The meeting maintained interest rates unchanged. After the meeting, the wording in the statement and Powell’s press conference was broadly consistent with market expectations, and no unexpectedly hawkish signals were released. As a result, gold did not extend its intraday downtrend; it failed to break below the new low. Instead, it found effective support around 4518, and then stabilized and rebounded.

During today’s Asian session, gold continued to rise. In the course of trading, the intraday high touched around 4581. Currently, trading is around 4575. Gold is up about 0.7% on the day, and the short-term trend has entered a steady recovery.

This rebound in the gold price is mainly driven by the fact that the Fed’s policy wording meets expectations, and near-term bearish factors are gradually being digested. This rate-setting meeting did not release any signals related to rate hikes. The market’s prior concerns about an unexpectedly hawkish policy were alleviated. Earlier short positions were closed for profit, helping gold form a technical rebound. At the same time, technical repair demand has become more prominent: after gold fell continuously from the 4610 high to 4518, the short-term drop exceeded 90 points. Various short-term indicators are in oversold territory. Combined with the effective key support at 4518, the technical repair demand is gradually being released. This level has also become a key near-term divide between bullish and bearish forces for gold. In addition, the geopolitical situation and international oil prices have continued to provide bottom support for gold. The blockade issue in the Strait of Hormuz has not been resolved. Oil prices have stayed elevated. Although inflation concerns impose some restriction on gold’s upside, they also effectively limit the space for any pullback to the downside.

Current gold is in the early-session rebound high zone of 4575-4585, and it is important to monitor whether price can hold firmly within this range. On the upside, key resistance to watch is 4595-4605. This area is the prior market consolidation platform and a dual pressure zone created by the 4-hour moving averages, with a clear pressure effect. On the downside, support to watch is 4550-4560, which is the gold pullback defense zone. Stronger support is focused at 4518-4525.

This early-session rebound is a technical oversold repair. The continuation and sustainability of the move still need to be tracked further. If gold can hold above 4580 during the Asian and European sessions, it may gradually test the 4600 psychological level. If it instead faces pressure at current highs and falls back, it will most likely retreat again to the 4550-4560 support zone. In terms of trading, investors should take market fluctuations rationally and be cautious when positioning in line with the trend.

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