TD Cowen: Progress on Cryptocurrency Legislation Stalled, Not Just Stablecoin Yields Under Dispute

Goldman Sachs reports that on April 23, investment bank TD Cowen stated that the disagreements surrounding the “CLARITY Act” go far beyond stablecoin yield issues, with multiple practical obstacles potentially slowing down the legislative process.
First, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is short-staffed, currently with only one commissioner remaining in office. In this situation, Congress is unlikely to entrust more cryptocurrency regulation responsibilities to the agency, and filling the vacancies itself could take several months.
Second, the prediction market issue is heating up. Whether to include it in the bill’s regulation, as well as potential insider trading and political conflicts of interest (including disputes related to projects associated with Trump), could cause some Democratic lawmakers to oppose the bill.
Meanwhile, ongoing controversy surrounding Trump’s family crypto project, World Liberty Financial, is also increasing the bill’s political sensitivity, making bipartisan consensus more difficult.
Geopolitical factors have also become variables. Discussions about Iran possibly using crypto payments are intensifying focus on anti-money laundering provisions, and may even lead to amendments unfavorable to the industry.
Additionally, some lawmakers are attempting to include the “Credit Card Competition Act” in the bill; if advanced, this could trigger new conflicts of interest and further delay overall legislation.