#美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈 The US-Iran reconciliation process faces continuous setbacks, causing intense fluctuations in financial markets

BlockBeats news, April 18th, last night and this morning, the US-Iran reconciliation process showed unexpected developments, triggering significant market volatility. The release of "positive signals" from the US-Iran reconciliation prompted strong reactions in financial markets. Iran announced the "full opening" of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping, and Trump publicly declared that "a final agreement will be reached within a day or two," also stating that "Iran agrees to an indefinite suspension of its nuclear program and will not receive any unfreezing funds." These series of "positive" statements instantly ignited market risk sentiment. Stimulated by this favorable news, Bitcoin's price rebounded strongly, returning to $77k; the US stock market performed well, with the S&P and Nasdaq both hitting new record highs; meanwhile, oil prices suffered a heavy plunge, falling over 11%. At the same time, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased.

Internal Divisions in Iran, US Claims Questioned
However, the situation is not so simple. Iran's Islamic Parliament Speaker, Ali Larijani, issued a statement early in the morning, pouring cold water on the seemingly clear situation. He stated that the seven claims made by Trump on social media earlier are "all false," accusing the US of relying on lies to avoid war and that they will gain nothing in negotiations. Larijani emphasized that if the US continues to blockade Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz cannot remain open, and Iran will never relinquish its jurisdiction over the strait. He also said that Trump's plans to destroy Iranian civilization have already failed.
Additionally, according to Bloomberg, the "open" status mentioned by Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi actually means that commercial ships still need to "coordinate" with Iran before passing, which is significantly different from the market's previous interpretation of "full free passage." The future direction of US-Iran relations remains uncertain, and the "two-person show" before negotiations will continue. Despite Trump's weekend remarks successfully igniting market risk sentiment, the future of US-Iran relations remains full of uncertainties.

From the current situation, both sides have clear disagreements on key issues. Before the negotiation agreement is finalized, this "back-and-forth" "two-person show" between the US and Iran will likely persist, and the market should keep a close eye on developments.