📊 Wolf Analysis 2026.04.16

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Market Description

24h Price Change

BTC $74,332（-0.05%）🟡 Basically flat

ETH $2,335.51（-1.59%）🔴

SOL $83.76（-2.46%）🔴

BNB $618.24（+0.47%）🟢

BNB leads the gains; BTC steadies with reduced volume above $74,000, but ETH/SOL weaken, and the overall market still remains in a high-level range-bound pattern.

1h Trend: BTC moves from $74,012 → $73,865 → $74,201, with oscillation tightening and trading volume of 528 BTC; ETH $2,320 → $2,317 → $2,337, relatively weak; SOL $83.16 → $83.61 → $83.76, consolidating sideways with reduced volume; BNB $615.56 → $617.02 → $619.71, with clear support. BTC finds support near $74,000, but lacks upward momentum.

15m Trend: BTC moves $74,049 → $74,201 → $74,177 → $74,333 → $74,332, the range compresses to $74,000-$74,466, and the latest trading volume is only 40 BTC; ETH $2,329 → $2,337 → $2,334 → $2,331 → $2,335; SOL $83.41 → $83.50 → $83.48 → $83.79 → $83.75, extremely narrow sideways movement; BNB $618.72 → $618.45 → $618.45 → $618.92 → $618.24. Ahead of the US session, trading volume continues to shrink, and volatility drops to low levels.

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Market Drivers

① Trump threatens to dismiss Powell; DOJ continues to investigate the Fed chair

Forbes/Barrons: Trump said that if Powell does not voluntarily resign after the end of his term, he will fire him. The DOJ’s investigation into Powell is still ongoing, despite a prior court ruling that the investigation had political motivation. Once the news broke, concerns about the Fed’s independence surged.

② Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Iran’s uranium enrichment is an "inalienable right"

Fox News: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Iran has the right to enrich uranium, openly defying Trump’s demands. The negotiation path between the US and Iran adds more uncertainty, and the pace at which the geopolitical risk premium fades slows down.

③ Iran: No timetable has been set for a new round of talks yet

NYT: An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that, so far, no timetable has been determined for a new round of talks with the United States. Trump previously said negotiations could take place in the "coming few days," but Iran has not yet provided a clear response. Expectations for a summit/truce cool down.

④ US Treasury Secretary Bessent delivers a tax address today; ongoing promotion of the tax-cut effects

White House: Treasury Secretary Bessent and SBA_Kelly held a press conference today, saying that 50 million Americans have benefited from Trump’s tax-cut policies, and the number of tax refund recipients increased by 15% this year. Positive economic policy effects are continuously emphasized by the White House, but they have not exceeded expectations.

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⚠️ Risk Warning

• Trump’s threat to dismiss Powell is today’s biggest risk event; expectations of damage to Fed independence are heating up, and the US dollar credit risk premium is rising

• The dispute over Iran’s uranium enrichment rights continues; the timetable for US-Iran talks remains unclear, and geopolitical risk could be repriced at any time

• BTC $73,800 is a key support, $73,000 is the second intraday support, and the upside target is $76,000

• ETH $2,300 is the final line of defense for bulls, and SOL $82.65 is today’s low-support level

• 15m trading volume hits the recent low; a breakout move may start during the US session—watch for the risk of volatility expansion

• Position management comes first; reduce unhedged exposure during periods dominated by news #美股创下历史新高 #美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈 #特朗普对鲍威尔下最后通牒 #RAVE暴涨130%合约爆仓全网第三