Recently, Bitcoin has been bouncing back and forth around $70,000, feeling like the market is still searching for direction. I looked at the market, and BTC has been fluctuating in the range of $62,500 to $71,100 for a while. Last Wednesday, it once surged to $70,000 but then fell back to around $68,600. This repeated testing makes me think of the failed breakout in January, when it dropped straight from $98,000 to $60,000. Looking back, it still gives me a bit of a scare.

Interestingly, although Bitcoin is stuck in a tug-of-war, some altcoins are quietly rising. DOT has been performing well recently, reportedly because of an upcoming reward halving in March, so there was an early hype. UNI also rose along with it, mainly because new governance votes are expected to expand yield capture, and such positive news can indeed attract funds. On the other hand, ATOM hasn't been so lucky, dropping over 6% with no obvious negative news—just a lack of liquidity causing a fragile market.

Cardano and Ethereum have gained about 8.5% since Wednesday morning, but I noticed that this rise is mainly driven by increasing futures positions, indicating leverage is pushing the market rather than genuine spot buying. The open interest in futures has already surpassed $100 billion, exceeding the total market cap growth, which is a clear sign of new capital entering. Futures positions for ADA and ETH have increased by 21% and 15%, respectively—Cardano, this old project, has indeed been attracting attention lately.

However, volatility indicators show the market remains quite calm. The implied volatility for BTC and ETH is near the weekly lows, and this calmness actually makes me a bit worried. In the options market, open interest in $60,000 put options exceeds $1.4 billion, indicating that the market is taking defensive measures against downside risks. It feels like we’re just waiting for a confirmation of the direction—either a breakout upward or a retest of support.