Interesting development in the Middle East. I just read that on Saturday, April 4th, talks took place between Oman and Iran at the deputy foreign ministers level. The topic? Safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz — a key maritime route for global trade. Oman is clearly engaging in mediation, which suggests the situation is serious. Interestingly, the market seems to be pessimistic about a quick resolution. Data from Polymarket show that the forecast for reopening the Strait of Hormuz for shipping this month has drastically fallen — now it’s only 12%. This significant drop indicates that market participants do not expect a quick improvement in the situation. It appears that tensions in the region will persist for a longer period. Such geopolitical turmoil usually impacts energy prices and shifts market sentiment. It’s worth keeping an eye on this.