Just caught something David Schwartz said that cuts through all the noise around XRP hitting $100. And honestly, it's hard to argue with his logic.

Here's the thing - if even a meaningful chunk of rational traders actually believed there was a real 10% shot at XRP reaching $100 in the next few years, the market would look completely different right now. Like, XRP wouldn't be chilling below $10. The supply would get eaten up. People with that conviction would be accumulating hard, not selling. But that's not what we see.

Schwartz breaks it down in pure market terms. Price isn't about what people say online. It's about what they actually do with their money. And right now, most participants clearly don't assign those odds to a $100 target, even if they talk about it. That gap between the talk and the actual buying pressure? That's where real price discovery happens.

The David Schwartz take goes deeper though. He pushes back on the idea that crypto prices are mostly irrational chaos. His view is that most prices are actually fairly rational most of the time. They're balancing real upside potential against regulatory risk, adoption timelines, competition, and all the uncertainty around it.

When big bull runs actually happen, they usually come from stuff nobody saw coming. Macro shifts. Regulatory changes. Structural moves in how capital flows. For XRP specifically, that means a lot depends on external factors - actual payments adoption, institutional usage ramping up, regulatory clarity moving forward. None of that moves on a schedule. The market prices that uncertainty in every single day.

Look, XRP and the XRPL still have the same core utility they always did. Payments. Settlement. Asset exchange. That hasn't gone anywhere. But utility alone doesn't force a massive valuation jump. Markets want to see it work at scale.

The uncomfortable truth for extreme bulls is that price is just a probability-weighted guess made by millions of participants every day. Run the math yourself. Change the target, change the odds, change the timeframe. You usually end up in the same place. The market's not sleeping. It's voting with capital. And right now at $1.32, that vote is pretty clear on where it stands.