Bitcoin vs Gold Hits Historic Extreme: What Happens When Market Cycles Rhyme Again

Most investors track Bitcoin solely in dollar terms. But zoom out to the Bitcoin/Gold ratio, and an entirely different story emerges. The RSI on this chart just hit its lowest point in recorded history—a signal that potentially reframes everything we thought we knew about the current market phase.

Bitcoin peaked relative to Gold in December 2024. Since that moment, we’ve been in a roughly 14-month relative bear market. This duration is no coincidence. Looking back through Bitcoin’s history reveals a striking pattern that rhymes across decades.

Four 14-Month Cycles: The Pattern That Repeats in Bitcoin’s History

Every major bear market in Bitcoin’s history has followed the same rhythm. Check the timeline:

• November 2013 to January 2015: 14 months
• December 2017 to February 2019: 14 months
• April 2021 to June 2022: 14 months
• December 2024 to now: 14 months (and counting)

The consistency is striking. We are now precisely where previous cycles were before they shifted. Yet conventional wisdom insists we’re still “early” in a downtrend, pointing to October 2025’s all-time high in dollar terms as proof. This is where the perspective matters most.

Price in Gold, Not Dollars: Why the Denominator Effect Reshapes the Narrative

Here lies the critical insight: Bitcoin’s dollar all-time high in October 2025 may have been partially illusory. If Gold and Silver were rallying aggressively at that exact moment, Bitcoin’s absolute price peak could reflect currency debasement rather than true strength. This is the denominator effect—when the measuring stick itself weakens, the asset appears stronger without real gains.

When you reprice Bitcoin in Gold instead of dollars, the picture transforms completely. The narrative shifts from “a few months into a fresh downturn” to “potentially at the final phase of a bear market that started 14 months ago.” That distinction carries enormous weight.

The end of each prior 14-month cycle wasn’t followed by stagnation. It catalyzed multi-year expansions:

• 2015 led to 2017’s bull run
• 2019 led to 2021’s explosion
• 2022 led to 2024’s sustained rise

If history rhymes again, what comes next won’t be sideways chop—it could be multi-year strength.

Oversold Extremes to Expansion: The Silver Lining at Turning Points

The current setup matches prior turning points almost too perfectly:

• Lowest RSI in Bitcoin history (when priced against Gold)
• Bear market duration matching all prior major cycles
• Maximum pessimism on relative performance

Every time Bitcoin reached these extreme readings, what followed wasn’t deeper collapse. Instead, these compression zones preceded dramatic expansions. The momentum readings don’t suggest the beginning of a new bear market—they whisper about the exhaustion of the old one.

Being short here means betting that the most oversold condition in Bitcoin’s history will accelerate lower indefinitely. That’s theoretically possible. But historically, extremes like these have marked turning points, not continuation signals. The silver lining emerging from these depths may not be a coincidence—it’s often how cycles rhyme before they restart.

The question isn’t whether weakness can persist. It’s whether this level will be remembered as breakdown territory or compression before expansion.