Galaxy Futures: Coal mines gradually resume production, paying attention to changes in domestic and international coal markets

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches its end, coal mines at the production sites are resuming work and production, and coking coal supply is gradually recovering. Regarding Mongolian coal, the closure period during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday is one day longer than in 2025, which can somewhat ease the pressure on port inventories, but the impact is limited. The main focus remains on the recovery of customs clearance traffic after the holiday. For the coal market after the Spring Festival, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in both international and domestic coal markets. The reduction in Indonesian coal production is uncertain, and supply-side events and stories may be repeatedly traded, leading to market fluctuations. Domestically, coal capacity remains reasonably ample, with energy security still a top priority. As China’s main energy source, coal features strong supply stability, quick response to adjustments, and notable economic advantages. In the context of increasing risks such as extreme weather and international energy market volatility, its role as a stabilizer becomes even more prominent. Under domestic coal capacity and production policy regulation, the impact of reduced Indonesian coal on China’s coal market is expected to be limited. However, from a valuation perspective, current coking coal valuations are not high, and capital and sentiment may increase price volatility. Considering the risk-reward ratio, it is advisable to buy on dips, but one should not be overly optimistic about significant upward movement. (Galaxy Futures)