Analyst: The indicator shows that the current market sentiment has yet to reach the previous cycle bottom capitulation zone.

On February 26, crypto market analyst Axel posted a report on social media stating that according to CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin “MVRV Z-Score” is currently at -2.28, having fallen below the bear market lows of 2018 (-1.6) and 2022 (-1.4), indicating a “strong bear” zone. The MVRV Z-Score is a standardized deviation of market capitalization relative to realized capitalization; negative values indicate that market prices are below on-chain “fair value.” Axel explained that this anomaly can be attributed to the scale of realized market cap in the ETF era, with large institutional capital inflows raising the cost basis and making the Z-Score more sensitive to price adjustments. If the Z-Score rises back above -1.5 and the price holds above $65,000, it will serve as the first technical confirmation signal of an exit pressure zone. However, the NUPL indicator, which measures market sentiment, is currently at 0.197, still in the “hope” zone and far from reaching the surrender area at the cycle bottoms in history. During the true capitulation phases (December 2018, March 2020, November 2022), NUPL would dip into negative territory, with most holders experiencing net losses. The current 0.197 is in the middle of the historical range, still far from the pain zone. Data shows that market sentiment is weakening but not yet in panic. Most participants are still in profit on paper (NUPL > 0), but confidence has noticeably shaken.