Bitcoin Mining Cost Settles at $45K Following Halving Wave and Miner Rationalization

According to recent analysis from JPMorgan, the current bitcoin mining cost has stabilized around $45,000, representing a notable decline from the previous $50,000+ threshold. This shift reflects a fundamental market correction as the network experiences a natural culling of unprofitable operations following the quadrennial halving event.

How the Halving Triggered Network Restructuring and Efficiency Gains

The halving mechanism—which reduces miner block rewards by 50% to slow Bitcoin supply expansion—created immediate pressure on network operators. JPMorgan analysts anticipated a sharp drop in total computational power as marginal miners would be forced offline. However, the expected rapid decline in hashrate faced unexpected friction.

The delay in network rationalization can be traced to a singular event: the Runes protocol launch, which introduced a new tokenization framework on Bitcoin. This development triggered a temporary surge in transaction fees, providing miners with unexpected revenue relief precisely when halving cuts hit hardest. Miners facing a 50% reward reduction found their losses temporarily offset by elevated fee collection, allowing more operations to remain economically viable during the immediate post-halving period.

Runes Protocol: Brief Windfall Followed by Reality Check

The financial boost from Runes proved to be short-lived. Activity and transaction fee levels dropped dramatically within weeks as user interest waned, stripping away the temporary revenue support that kept marginal miners operational. This volatility highlighted a persistent structural challenge: miners struggle to maintain sustainable income streams in post-halving environments when supplementary revenue sources prove unreliable.

As the Runes-driven fee spike dissipated, the network’s actual computational power and energy consumption patterns began to normalize. The divergence between declining energy use and hashrate revealed the true nature of the market shift: inefficient mining rigs operated by unprofitable miners have progressively disconnected from the network. This represents a natural market cleansing where only economically viable operations survive.

The Economics of Bitcoin: Price and Profitability in Lockstep

Network dynamics create a self-reinforcing cycle between bitcoin’s market price and mining profitability. As BTC values decline, additional miners cross the profitability threshold and face pressure to exit, reducing overall hashrate and ultimately lowering production costs. Conversely, price appreciation expands the profit margins of existing operations and can attract new participants.

JPMorgan’s research highlights this interconnection: the current bitcoin mining cost of approximately $45,000 cannot be disconnected from broader price movements. With BTC currently trading around $67.86K—up 4.44% over the past 24 hours—miners operating at the $45K threshold maintain healthy margins, reducing immediate pressure for further exit-based rationalization.

Near-Term Headwinds Limit Bitcoin’s Upside Potential

Despite recent price momentum, JPMorgan maintains a cautious stance on near-term bitcoin prospects. The bank identifies several structural headwinds: absent positive catalysts, diminishing retail investor enthusiasm, and fragile macroeconomic conditions. These factors suggest limited upside in the immediate weeks ahead, even as the network achieves greater operational efficiency through miner rationalization.

The bitcoin mining cost framework provides a useful lens for understanding market dynamics. At $45K, the network demonstrates improved efficiency, but this cost floor also represents a price point below which further mining exodus becomes inevitable—a crucial level for market observers tracking network health and price stability.