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$MP (let’s do a bit of a technical analysis training)
the price rises from peak 1 to peak 2 and then makes a fake breakout. this is also a bull trap. so why does the trader in the lower right corner place the entry not at the fake breakout of the first peak but below the first bottom? because the market maker can fake a breakout and trap impatient traders. this doesn’t happen much in the stock market, but it’s very common in markets like forex. therefore, for the setup to be confirmed, it must make a weekly close below the red enter line. until this happens, the double top does not work!
the reason why some people think technical analysis doesn’t work is actually because they don’t know how to use it properly. the pattern in the lower right corner alone is not enough. at the same time, macroeconomic developments, news flow, earnings reports, future outlook, and sector trends must all be blended together to form a rational idea before performing technical analysis!
some people think, “I only look at technical analysis because all of this is already reflected in the chart.” I don’t agree with that too. analysis should be holistic.
even from a purely technical standpoint, a pattern alone is not enough. is there an FVG zone? is the price far from the average? where is the RSI? is there a gap? is there an order block? is the trend continuing? all these questions must be answered!
as you can see, there’s a double top and negative divergence. for this pattern to work, the entry line must first break. but that’s not enough, because the neckline will then act as support, so for a correction, the neckline must also break.