#Gate广场五月交易分享 United Arab Emirates Withdraws from OPEC+, Oil Prices Break $110: New Energy Investment Logic Amid Middle East Power Shift

A single statement has shaken the global crude oil market.
After nearly 60 years of joining OPEC, the UAE has chosen to go solo. On April 28 local time, the UAE government suddenly announced: effective May 1, 2026, it will officially withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the "OPEC+" mechanism.
As the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, accounting for about 12% of the organization’s total supply per month, this decision has caused a shock in the international energy market.
Following the announcement, the international benchmark Brent crude futures briefly surged past $110 per barrel and continued to climb in subsequent trading. Behind this sudden event, a profound restructuring of the Middle East energy landscape is unfolding.
1. Why is the UAE “breaking up” now? “Long in the making”
William Wexler, an expert at the Atlantic Council think tank, described the UAE’s withdrawal decision as a strategic move driven by economic interests. In recent years, the UAE has invested heavily in expanding its oil fields, currently with a daily capacity of about 4.8 million barrels, but constrained by the OPEC+ quota system, its actual daily output has long been suppressed at around 3.4 million barrels—meaning roughly 30% of its capacity is artificially idle. Industry estimates suggest that in 2025 alone, potential revenue losses from production cuts could exceed $12 billion. UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei openly stated in an interview: “The world needs more energy, and the UAE does not want to be bound by any organization.”
But deeper cracks lie in fundamental disagreements over energy strategies. The UAE aims to quickly “cash in” on its oil resources before the global energy transition is complete, using the proceeds to promote economic diversification and high-tech investments; meanwhile, Saudi Arabia relies heavily on high oil prices to support its finances and prefers to maintain production cuts to stabilize prices. One seeks market share, the other price, and their routes are now diverging sharply.
Meanwhile, regional political tensions are also accelerating. During the Iran conflict, the UAE was the most severely affected, but the response from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) disappointed the UAE. UAE President’s diplomatic advisor Anwar Gargash publicly criticized the GCC for taking its “weakest stance in history” during this round of attacks. This sense of disappointment in the conflict has become a key catalyst for the UAE’s decision to go solo.
2. Oil prices above $110 and the Hormuz deadlock
After the UAE’s withdrawal was announced, international oil prices initially plunged but quickly rebounded amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures stabilized above $110, and on April 29, even surpassed the $122 mark.
“In the short term, even if the UAE increases production, it will be difficult for large volumes of crude to flow into the international market,” said Li Zixin, an assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies. The core contradiction in the current international energy market is not production but transportation. This highlights the real key to the current high oil prices—the Strait of Hormuz. This vital passage connecting the Persian Gulf normally carries about one-fifth of global oil supply, but now transit has nearly come to a halt. Before the conflict, 125 to 140 ships crossed daily; recently, only 7 ships are passing, with no oil export ships. Yang An, head of energy research at Haitong Futures, stated: “If the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues until the end of May, the oil market could lose nearly 1.8 billion barrels of supply, and prices could surge to $150 per barrel or higher.” Goldman Sachs previously analyzed that if the strait remains blocked for another month, Brent crude prices in the third quarter could average $120 per barrel.
The key variable is—when will the blockade be lifted?
The US-Iran negotiations have stalled, with both sides engaged in fierce battles over control of the strait. Any resolution signals could trigger a rapid correction in oil prices, but until then, the blockade remains the biggest uncertainty hanging over the global energy market.
3. Investment logic in the new energy landscape
The core impact of the UAE’s “withdrawal” on the international oil market is not immediate production changes but long-term structural shocks.
1. Weakening OPEC’s regulatory capacity. The UAE’s departure has left almost all effective idle capacity within OPEC+ concentrated in Saudi Arabia, thinning the organization’s “buffer” in the market.
Analysts suggest that future oil price volatility could further increase. If more members follow suit and exit, OPEC may accelerate toward decentralization, and global oil pricing could gradually shift from monopolistic coordination to more competitive market mechanisms.
2. Amid the unresolved Hormuz crisis, energy security and supply chain security remain the main themes throughout the year.
As oil prices stay high, the chemical industry faces rising costs, and companies with upstream resources or cost advantages may see their valuations reassessed.
3. From an asset allocation perspective, the safe-haven logic of gold is re-emerging.
With ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, global risk aversion has increased, and gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is likely to attract capital. Meanwhile, fluctuations in the US dollar index also support gold prices.
4. Structural opportunities from a medium- to long-term perspective.
Although the UAE’s withdrawal signals increased long-term downward pressure on oil prices, the fundamentals of high prices will persist until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, and the pace of renewable energy substitution may accelerate due to high oil prices. Investors should seek balance across energy, chemical price chains, and gold hedging, and allocate positions reasonably.
Final thoughts
The UAE’s “withdrawal” appears to be a contest over oil production, but in reality, it reflects a profound reshaping of the global economic landscape. Amid the wave of energy transition, oil-exporting countries are recalculating: continue to band together to control prices, or cash out while prices remain high? The long-standing “collective action” model in the Gulf region is being replaced by “autonomous decision-making.”
In the short term, focus on Hormuz; in the medium term, observe Middle East developments; in the long term, watch the global energy transition. In this era of uncertainty, understanding underlying logic and maintaining strategic resolve are essential to navigating volatility.