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Market price discovery is primarily driven by 3% informed traders
Odaily Planet Daily reports that researchers from London Business School and Yale University recently published a paper indicating that the accuracy of market predictions mainly does not come from “collective intelligence,” but is driven by a small number of informed traders. The study shows that only about 3% of accounts contribute most of the price discovery, and can more effectively predict outcomes, respond to news, and improve market pricing accuracy.
The paper also points out that the remaining majority of participants contribute most of the trading volume, but with limited informational content, and their trading losses often flow to informed traders. The research suggests that the accuracy of prediction markets is better reflected as the “wisdom of a few informed individuals.”