CITIC Futures: Gold experiences short-term fluctuations, lacking sufficient upward momentum to drive a trend-based rise

Gold is weighed down on two fronts: on one hand, it is pressured by the imminent expiration of the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement and the unclear outlook for US-Iran negotiations, which weaken buying sentiment; on the other hand, it is also held back by the emphasis at the Waller hearing on maintaining the Federal Reserve’s independence and low inflation, as well as the stronger-than-expected rebound in March retail data, under which market expectations for rate cuts are further tightened and further pressured.

First, the official website of the US Senate Banking Committee shows that on April 21, Fed Chair nominee Waller said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing that if he were appointed and took charge of the Federal Reserve, he would independently make monetary policy decisions and would not be influenced by any suggestions or pressure from Trump, adding that low inflation is the Federal Reserve’s “protective shield.”

Second, in the US, March retail sales rose 1.7% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 1.4% and the prior 0.7%; core retail sales increased 1.9% month-on-month, also above the expected 1.4% and the previous 0.7%. Supported by strong retail data, market expectations for Fed rate cuts narrowed further.

Third, the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement is set to expire at 4:22 PM Eastern Time on April 22. Trump publicly stated that if the two sides cannot reach an agreement before the temporary ceasefire expires, extending the ceasefire is “extremely unlikely.” Iran has also indicated that it will refuse to participate in the second round of negotiations with the United States. With the negotiation outlook unclear, sentiment for buying gold remains cautious, and funds are waiting for the situation to become clear. (CITIC Futures)