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The prediction market shows a significant decrease in the likelihood of US-Iran diplomatic talks.
According to ME News on April 27th (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that in the event “Diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran…?”, the “Yes” option for “Holding US-Iran diplomatic talks before April 29, 2026” has seen its probability of occurrence drop from 72.5% to 12.5%, a decrease of 60.0 percentage points in one day.