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🔥The US and Iran are stuck in a deadlock of "no war, no peace," with Polymarket predicting only a 2% chance of a peace agreement by the end of April.
On April 26, after US-Iran peace negotiations were put on hold, both sides fell into a deadlock of "no war, no peace." Iranian officials are confident they can tolerate the economic costs of war better than the Trump administration, while Trump believes blocking the Strait of Hormuz could topple Iran.
Progress in Pakistan's mediation is slow, and the global economy faces threats to oil supply.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of the US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement on Polymarket is only 2% before April 30, 32% before May 31, and 48% before June 30.