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Lately, I've been really focused on on-chain whale activity, but honestly, before copying trades, think carefully: Are they slowly building positions, or are they using spot holdings as a base and hedging with futures? Many addresses look like they're aggressively "buying," but in reality, they might be moving on both sides simultaneously, with the goal just to weather the volatility, not to pump the price and lift the market.
Right now, I see it more like stocking up at a supermarket: someone suddenly clears out a whole cart of water, and you think prices will rise, but actually, they're doing a company bulk purchase and just returning other inventory... If you follow and buy it back home, it can be pretty awkward. The same applies on-chain—don't just look at inflows and outflows; consider the timing, frequency, and whether they’ve opened opposite positions as part of a strategy.
By the way, the recent NFT royalty dispute also feels similar: wanting to protect creators' income is fine, but if you block liquidity, eventually trades dry up, which is awkward. Many market moves seem like the same thing, but the underlying "purpose" could be completely different. Anyway, I’ll take it slow for now, say less, watch more.