Study Finds 3% of Polymarket Traders Drive Most Price Discovery

A working paper based on every Polymarket trade from 2023 to 2025 found that 3% of traders account for most price discovery across 1.72 million accounts and $13.76 billion in volume. The paper found that the other 97% mainly provide liquidity and lose in aggregate to the informed minority, while trades based on non-public information, when they occur, move prices even more aggressively per dollar.

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