These days, I see people using "Stablecoin supply increased = it's about to take off" and "ETF net inflow = all the off-market money is coming" as causal chains. Honestly, it's a bit like treating a thermometer as a fever reducer. An increase in stablecoins might mean waiting for the right opportunity, or it could just be moving assets; ETF inflows might be a gradual build-up of positions, or it could be hedging and turnover. The correlation is strong, but don't rush to draw conclusions.

Airdrop season is the same. The stricter the anti-witch hunt on task platforms, the more the points system resembles clocking in for work. The surface data looks lively, but in reality, people are being led by "quantifiable diligence." In the end, when reviewing, it's not money being earned, but screenshots.

I'll first note down a few sets of on-chain data I saw today, so I won't be carried away by emotions again tomorrow.