Recently, I've seen people directly draw causal relationships like "Stablecoin supply increases = funds are coming in" and "ETF net inflow = spot prices are about to surge." Frankly, I'm a bit worried about this kind of speculation... An increase in supply could also be due to chain switching, market making adjustments, or even big players moving their money out, among other opportunities; similarly, ETF inflows don't necessarily mean that the funds will immediately pour into the chain or pool you're watching.



I personally treat it as a patch: first, look at some small, real-world details—has the routing become shorter, has the depth increased, and is the slippage for the same amount more stable? Recently, some regions have been tightening and loosening tax and compliance regulations, and the expectations around deposits and withdrawals can really make people nervous, but emotions are emotions. On-chain data shouldn't be rigidly interpreted as "inevitable." Anyway, I’m gradually adding to my observation positions, fixing the trading patch first before making any moves.
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