#Gate13周年现场直击 【Major Market Events】Entering Q1 2026, New Changes in the Crypto Market (Important)

1. Industry Changes
1. Total market capitalization fell to $2.4 trillion, a decrease of about 20% in a single quarter, with an overall retreat of nearly 45% compared to the October 2025 peak. The decline mainly concentrated in a short period from mid-January to early February. On February 6th, BTC directly dropped to around $60k, with a single-day decline of over 10%.

The key trigger was Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair, which the market interpreted as a potential shift toward a more "hawkish" monetary policy (rate hikes/tightening liquidity); the People's Bank of China, the Financial Regulatory Administration, the CSRC, and other eight departments jointly issued statements reaffirming the ban on virtual currencies.
2. Daily trading volume decreased to about $117.8 billion, down 27% month-over-month. This indicates that the market is not only declining but also becoming "increasingly quiet."
3. The total size of stablecoins remained roughly at $309 billion, with USDT decreasing by about 1.6%, USDC increasing by about 2.4%, and new entrants USDS, USD1, achieving over 30% growth.
4. Macro asset comparison: Crypto assets clearly lost momentum, while commodities surged strongly.
Crude oil rose +76.9%, gold +8.1%. Crypto assets lagged significantly, with BTC down 22%. In a risk-averse environment, crypto assets were not treated as "safe-haven assets."
Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) rose slightly, indicating funds are flowing back into "traditional safe assets" rather than into crypto.
5. Exchanges: Overall activity declined. CEXs decreased by 39.1% month-over-month.
DEXs, with public chains SOL, BSC, and ETH in the top three, and Monad entering the top ten, show that even in a bear market, infrastructure competition continues.
6. A very critical but easily overlooked trend is: commodity trading begins to go on-chain.
Commodity perpetual contracts account for about 30% of total holdings, with explosive demand for crude oil trading, sometimes exceeding Bitcoin's daily trading volume.
Hyperliquid, through the HIP-3 proposal, allows anyone to stake funds to issue contracts, including stocks, gold, and crude oil, meaning the crypto market is transforming into a "24-hour global exchange."
Subsequently, centralized exchanges like Gate, Binance, OKX, and others fully launched traditional assets.

2. Regulation: Intensive global regulatory implementation, "compliance" becomes the core competitive advantage
🇺🇸 United States: Clear legislation (CLARITY Act) reaches the final stage
2026 is defined as the "final year of legislation" for US crypto regulation. If the CLARITY Act is not marked up by the Senate before the end of April, it may be postponed until 2030; the SEC and CFTC jointly classified Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major assets as "digital commodities," ending years of jurisdiction disputes. The GENIUS Act requires stablecoin issuers to comply with AML/CFT and other prudent regulations, pushing the market toward leading compliant firms like USDC and USAT, thereby structurally shrinking USDT's space in the US institutional market.
🇨🇳 China: Eight departments take strong action
On February 6th, the People's Bank of China, the Financial Regulatory Administration, the CSRC, and six other departments jointly issued a statement reaffirming the ban on virtual currencies, explicitly stating that stablecoins pegged to the RMB cannot be issued abroad without approval, and RWA tokenization-related activities are also included in strict regulatory frameworks.
🇪🇺 European Union: MiCA enters the second phase of implementation
MiCA continues to deepen, with centralized exchanges beginning to delist certain assets under new regulations, and liquidity migrating to DEXs and perpetual contract markets.
🇭🇰 Hong Kong: Accelerating layout as a crypto hub
Hong Kong promotes the ASPiRe roadmap (Connect, Secure, Product, Infrastructure, Contact), opening up leveraged crypto financing and perpetual contracts for professional investors. The HKMA issued the first stablecoin licenses in April.
3. Structural Opportunities: Macro funds shifting toward "tokenization" and "compliance"
Despite the market downturn, funds are not entirely retreating but strategically migrating.
1. Traditional assets accelerating on-chain (tokenization/RWA)
The on-chain value of RWA excluding stablecoins has surpassed $27 billion, nearly quadrupling compared to a year ago. In Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market, non-crypto asset trading accounts for about 45%; Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent company of NYSE, invested strategically in OK, which will directly open NYSE tokenized stock trading; stock perpetual contracts are the fastest-growing niche.
2. Stablecoins: Structural migration
Total stablecoin supply remains around $300 billion, with quarterly transfer volumes about $21.5 trillion. Tether (USDT) experienced its first supply contraction (~-1.6%), while USDC (+2.4%) and new stablecoins USDS, USD1 are accelerating growth, reflecting a clear trend of funds moving toward "compliant" and "transparent" assets.
3. DeFi reaches the top tier of primary markets for the first time
Q1 primary market funding totaled $4.59 billion (down 46.7% quarter-over-quarter), but DeFi, with $24k, surpassed CeFi for the first time as the largest funding sector. Infrastructure events accounted for 55 incidents (32%), ranking first in number. M&A activities totaled 38 deals, with disclosed amounts of $60k.
4. AI + tokenization continues to be a structural hotspot
Grayscale's research report explicitly states that AI-related tokens have generated excess returns, with increasing on-chain financial demand.
Tokens like Bittensor (TAO) and Morpho (MORPHO), with real narratives and institutional attention, saw quarterly gains exceeding 30%. Additionally, Strategy's $42 billion Bitcoin fundraising plan indicates that institutional strategic allocations remain active.

Overall
The core change in Q1 2026 is— the crypto market is undergoing "financial infrastructureization." Compliance ability becomes the core competitive advantage, tokenization bridges traditional assets and on-chain economies, and the frenzy of speculative narratives is being replaced by calm asset allocation narratives. Macroeconomic and policy variables remain the most important factors, but the industry itself is experiencing a historic shift from "casino to infrastructure."