These past couple of days, I’ve been watching the reserves of stablecoins again for a long time. To be honest, when they de-anchor, it’s often not “the assets are truly gone,” but rather everyone suddenly wants to run at the same time. When a bank run psychology kicks in, on-chain transfers queue up, liquidity pools thin out, and the price just gives you a shock. Transparency is also quite mysterious; no matter how thick the reports are, market sentiment can still turn on a dime and cause a shake.

By the way, I feel like the current macro framework is also quite disconnected. When expectations of interest rate cuts emerge, sometimes the US dollar index and risk assets move together… Anyway, I don’t quite understand it, I only know that emotional contagion can also drag stablecoins into the mix.

Yesterday, I wrote a small script to monitor abnormal flows for a few large deposit and withdrawal addresses, and I also set up alerts and limits for stablecoin exchanges. As a result, my mindset really changed: before, when I saw slight de-anchoring, I’d get itchy to rush in, afraid of missing out on “cheap” prices. Now, when my phone vibrates, I first take a sip of water, wait two minutes, then confirm… Maybe impulsiveness has been somewhat tamed by the system. Let’s keep it like this for now, continue to treat it like noodles, and even if I add some spice, I still have to be able to swallow it.