April 18, 2026, Review | Breakouts arrive as expected, but don't rush to chase

"The trend is your friend, but friends also get tired. The key is to see when they take a breather."
Just past midnight, I glanced at the market, and the big guy had already surged to 78,200, while the second brother also touched 2,462. The two key levels I mentioned yesterday were all broken through. This move is more aggressive than I expected, but it also brings a new question: chase or not?
Welcome everyone to Lao Zhang's trading diary. Lao Zhang will analyze with the SMC strategy framework.
1. Big Brother — Breakthrough of 78,000, but structure begins to heat up
Yesterday, the supply zone at 76,350 was directly broken through, now the price is above 78,000. From an SMC perspective, this rally completed the clearing of liquidity above, with the bulls eating all the stop-loss orders.
But a few signals keep me cautious:
• Bollinger Bands opening up and breaking above the upper band, momentum is indeed strong
• But a MACD divergence appeared on the 15-minute chart — price making new highs, MACD histogram shrinking
• 4-hour CCI soaring to 313, WR approaching 0, seriously overbought
• Daily SAR still above the K-line, short-term correction pressure in a bullish trend
Simply put: the trend is upward, no doubt, but entering at this position carries a poor risk-reward ratio. In SMC, there's a concept called "Order Block," which often retests after a breakout. The ideal long entry point is waiting for a pullback to the 76,200 - 76,800 zone to see if new demand appears.
Operational ideas (updated):
• Existing position: Hold and move stop-loss up to 76,000 (previous high support)
• New position: Do not chase high, wait for a pullback to 76,611-76,660, and confirm rejection signals before entering
• If it directly falls below 76,000: Short-term structure weakens, consider reducing or watching
• Target levels: First target 79,500, second target 81,000 (previous supply zone)
2. Second Brother — The rebound is here, but don’t ignore divergence
Today, the second brother finally stopped chasing, and the rise even exceeded the big guy, which is good. From a technical perspective, the second brother shows a double bottom pattern, confirmed to be bullish after breaking the neckline — a classic SMC structure signal.
But there are issues:
• MACD divergence on the 15-minute chart, same as the big guy
• 4-hour CCI at 293, WR at -4.8, seriously overbought
• Daily SAR still above the K-line, short-term correction needed
Good news is, the second brother just broke through 2,400, a key level. If the pullback doesn’t break below 2,380-2,400, it’s healthy.
Operational ideas (updated):
• Existing position: Hold and move stop-loss up to 2,350 (previous high support)
• New position: Wait for a pullback to 2,375-2,380, then re-enter on signs of trend continuation
• If it falls below 2,350: Short-term structure is broken, stay on the sidelines
• Target levels: First target 2,550, second target 2,650
3. A key judgment: Is this "breakout after" or "breakout in progress"?
Many see the breakout and rush in, but the core of SMC is understanding the logic of capital flow:
1. Before breakout: institutions accumulate at low levels, retail traders wait or short
2. During breakout: institutions push up, triggering short stop-losses, retail FOMO chasing in
3. After breakout: institutions may take profits, price retests to confirm support
Currently, we are likely transitioning from phase 2 to phase 3, meaning there’s still potential for a short-term surge, but the risk of a pullback is accumulating.
4. Early morning trading suggestions
If you are currently flat:
• Don’t chase; wait for a pullback. Big guy at 76,200-76,800, second brother at 2,380-2,400
• This (Discount Zone), risk is controllable
If you already hold positions:
• Move stop-loss up to protect profits
• Big guy stop-loss at 76,000, second brother at 2,350
• Don’t add positions; wait for confirmation on a pullback before adding
If you really want to short:
• Now is not a good time; the trend is still upward
• If you insist, look for rejection signals around 79,000-79,500 for the big guy, and near 2,550 for the second brother
• Keep position sizes light, tighten stop-losses, this is a counter-trend trade
"The market rewards patience, not bravery. Breakouts are signals, not commands."
That’s all for today. Tomorrow, see if a pullback offers an opportunity; if not, continue waiting. In trading, missing out is better than making mistakes.
This is only my personal analysis and operational ideas, not investment advice. The market is risky, and position management is always more important than predicting the direction. $BTC $ETH