These days, I’ve seen people talk about stablecoin “de-pegging” again. Basically, most of the time it’s not on-chain issues, but people’s trust breaking first: you usually believe that 1 equals 1, but once you start doubting whether the reserves are sufficient or the redemption process is smooth, even a slight delay can cause a collective run on the system. The transparency of reserves is also quite subtle; reports, audits, and custody lists can all look perfect, but the key is whether you can get cash immediately during a stress test. The gap between information disclosure and “redeemability” is just one breath, and the market will seize on that breath to make a fuss.

Recently, with ETF capital flows and the risk appetite shifts in the US stock market, the narrative that crypto prices follow the ups and downs has been recycled again, and I find it a bit annoying: macro sentiment definitely propagates, but stablecoins are more like “short-term credit.” Once this propagates to redemption expectations, all correlation analysis becomes useless. My simple approach is: I’d rather earn a little less interest than ignore how they prove they can “redeem at any time.” That’s all for now.