Analysis: The expectation of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran boosts risk assets, with short squeeze combined with low volatility driving Bitcoin's rebound

ME News report, April 6 (UTC+8). Driven by news of potential ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran, Bitcoin and global risk assets strengthened. Bitcoin briefly rose to $69,350 in Monday morning, reaching a new weekly high. On the news front, media reports said the United States, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a 45-day ceasefire agreement framework; if reached, it could further move toward a long-term ceasefire. Analysts noted that this round of gains is mainly driven by expectations of ceasefire negotiations rather than Donald Trump’s tough remarks. The market has become less sensitive to his comments and is more inclined to judge based on signals from actual actions. In the derivatives market, the crypto market has formed a typical “short squeeze,” with both implied and realized volatility staying at low levels. Previously, market sentiment was heavily skewed toward extreme fear, creating conditions for a rebound. However, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key variable. If only a ceasefire is achieved without a substantive resumption of shipping, the price action may be only a short-term rebound. If negotiations fail, Bitcoin could still fall back into the $60,000 range. (Source: ODAILY)