Recently, I've seen a bunch of people watching large on-chain transfers and exchange hot and cold wallets, shouting "Smart money is coming" whenever there's movement... Honestly, the first thing I ask myself before copying trades now isn't excitement, but whether this is really building a position, or just hedging/arbitraging/rotating positions? The same seemingly "aggressive" move might just be someone shifting risk from one pocket to another.

I take simple actions as traps: the more straightforward the interpretation—like "one glance to conclude"—the more cautious I should be. Anyway, my own approach is pretty basic: first, see if it's done in batches, if there's crossing back and forth, if there's corresponding opposite positions or stablecoin inflows. If I can't figure it out, I just assume the market conditions are too poor, avoid it, and call it a day.