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Polymarket launches new prediction: "When will Israel and Hezbollah reach a permanent peace agreement"
CoinJie.com News: Polymarket has launched a new market titled “When will Israel and Hezbollah reach a permanent peace agreement?” In it, the probability of reaching a peace agreement by April 26 is temporarily reported at 9%, and the probability of reaching a peace agreement by May 31 is temporarily reported at 29%.
A permanent peace agreement refers to any agreement that clearly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will be permanently halted, or that uses similar wording to clearly state that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah will permanently end. Agreements that are explicitly temporary, or that do not include a final agreement that permanently ends military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah (for example, a temporary extension of a 10-day ceasefire announced on April 16, 2026) do not meet the criteria.
The primary information sources for this market are official information from the Israeli government and Hezbollah; however, consensus from other credible reports can also be referenced.