Bitunix Analyst: The expectation of a ceasefire has lowered the risk premium, but sanctions and shipping restrictions are expanding in tandem, and the market is entering a phase of "superficial easing, internal contraction" mismatch.

Mars Finance reports that on April 17, the market began to reprice the “form of war” rather than “whether war exists.” As the Iran-U.S. comprehensive agreement shifts to a temporary agreement framework and ceasefire signals increase, the extreme tail risk of supply disruptions appears to be reduced on the surface, directly triggering a pullback in safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar and a rebound in risk assets. However, at the same time, the United States has expanded the scope of shipping and energy-related sanctions against Iran, bringing crude oil, refined oil products, and industrial metals within the restrictions. This means that the substantive constraints on the supply side have not been lifted and are becoming even more structural.

This mismatch of “expectation easing vs. real contraction” is distorting market pricing. The energy market has not seen any real easing, but the U.S. dollar has weakened due to a repair in risk appetite, creating a typical asset mispricing: safe-haven assets price in optimistic scenarios in advance, while commodities continue to price in supply constraints. This is also why Wall Street has begun to move in unison toward a bearish stance on the dollar. At its core, it is not that fundamentals have deteriorated, but that a rebalancing of capital flows has shifted funds back from wartime positioning into risk assets.

Deeper changes are coming from the policy level and capital structure. Internally, the Federal Reserve still maintains a cautious tone, even a somewhat hawkish one, while market pricing for rate cuts across the year has been compressed to an extreme level, indicating that interest-rate expectations have not truly shifted toward easing. Meanwhile, warnings from former Treasury officials about risks to demand for U.S. Treasuries, together with long-end interest rates remaining high, suggest that global confidence in “risk-free assets” is starting to wobble at the margin. This will further weaken the dollar’s structural support, making it more vulnerable to swings in risk sentiment.

Returning to the crypto market, BTC is currently in a typical phase of liquidity redistribution. The price has repeatedly tested the supply zone above 75,000 but has failed to hold effectively. Correspondingly, the 76,000 area continues to face high-density liquidation and trapped-position pressure. However, the range between 72,000 and 73,000 has formed clear liquidity absorption, showing that capital has not withdrawn; instead, it has been redirected to high-frequency reallocation within the range. Judging by the distribution of liquidation heat, the market is building a new center rather than extending a one-directional trend.

Overall, the market has shifted from “event-driven” to “structural mismatch-driven.” In the short term, price volatility will depend more on how capital reallocates among safe-haven assets, energy commodities, and risk assets rather than on any single macro event itself. The real key right now is not whether the conflict ends, but when supply constraints and liquidity conditions will realign.