Analysis: The expectation of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran boosts risk assets, with short squeeze combined with low volatility driving Bitcoin's rebound.

ME News Report, April 6 (UTC+8), driven by news of potential ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran, Bitcoin and global risk assets strengthened, with Bitcoin briefly rising to $69,350 on Monday morning, reaching a weekly high. According to media reports, the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a 45-day ceasefire agreement framework, which, if reached, could further lead to a long-term ceasefire. Analysis indicates that this round of gains is mainly driven by expectations of a ceasefire negotiation rather than Trump’s tough stance; the market’s sensitivity to his remarks has decreased, and it is now more inclined to judge based on actual action signals. In the derivatives market, the crypto market has formed a typical “short squeeze,” with both implied and actual volatility remaining low. Previously, market sentiment was extremely panic-driven, creating conditions for a rebound. However, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key variable. If only a ceasefire is achieved without substantive resumption of shipping, the rally may be short-lived; if negotiations fail, Bitcoin could still fall back to the $60k range. (Source: ODAILY)