Gate x Polymarket: Summary of the latest trending prediction events on April 17

In 2026, the most attention-grabbing narrative in the crypto world is shifting from “trading assets” to “trading events.” As a leading global cryptocurrency exchange, Gate officially integrated with Polymarket—the world’s largest decentralized prediction market—in March 2026, becoming the first centralized exchange (CEX) to incorporate this platform, enabling more than 51 million Gate users to participate in predictions of global trending events with a single click.

Prediction markets are becoming one of the most watched tracks in the 2026 crypto industry. According to Dune Analytics data, in March 2026 the number of monthly users in prediction markets increased by 118% year over year, reaching 865,411 people, and the nominal trading volume was close to $23.89 billion. Even more notably, on March 27, 2026, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, completed a $1.6 billion investment in Polymarket.

Latest Hot Prediction Events on April 17

Politics and Geopolitics: Powell’s Departure Expectations Heat Up

Polymarket data shows that the probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell leaves the Fed’s board before December 31, 2026 has reached 63%. This prediction reflects the market’s heightened attention to the direction of U.S. monetary policy. As expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates continue to strengthen, Powell’s future—whether he stays or leaves—is becoming an important variable that investors closely track.

Federal Reserve Interest Rates: Expectations of Maintaining High Rates Strengthen

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged in April is 99%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is only 1%. On Polymarket, traders are betting that the Fed will not cut rates at all throughout 2026, with an estimated probability of about 36%. With the U.S.-Iran conflict pushing oil prices above $110, market expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates are strengthening. Meanwhile, on Polymarket, the probability that the U.S. economy falls into recession within the year is about 53%, which is at a relatively high level in recent times.

Middle East Situation: Divergence Over the Outlook for a U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

On Polymarket, the market believes there is a 28% probability that Trump will officially announce the end of the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire before April 21, while the probability that the ceasefire will be extended is 43%, showing a signal of divergence. On April 14, five “Smart Money” accounts collectively placed a bet of $144,300 on Polymarket that “the conflict between Iran and Israel/U.S. will end before April 15”; the current “Yes” probability is 73%.

At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine situation remains just as hot. On Polymarket, the prediction market regarding whether Russia and Ukraine can achieve a ceasefire before April 30, 2026 continues to be active. An account that previously successfully predicted Trump’s election victory and profited $1.9 million has also put in $425,000 to bet on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire this year.

Polymarket Native Token POL: Price Continues Under Pressure

Affected by the overall bearish sentiment in the crypto market, the underlying token POL of the Polymarket ecosystem has recently seen sustained price pressure, and is currently trading near the $0.08 to $0.09 range. Third-party prediction models suggest that in 2026, the POL price may fluctuate between $0.08 and $0.21, depending on how smoothly the transition is implemented. Although short-term price performance is weak, the Giugliano hard fork upgrade on the Polygon network is underway, aiming to improve speed and scalability, which is seen as a long-term bullish signal.

Gate Integration: One-Click Access to Global Prediction Markets

Gate’s integration precisely addresses Polymarket’s relatively high native usage entry barrier, bringing three core advantages to over 51 million users: seamless fund account access—no need to manage mnemonic phrases or cross-chain bridging; you can directly use USDT from your Gate spot account to participate in prediction trading without additional Gas fees; dual trading modes combined—prediction mode is designed for beginners to get started quickly, while trading mode provides an order book, candlestick charts, and limit/market orders; simplified settlement mechanism—after an event is settled, the winning proceeds are automatically converted 1:1 into stablecoins and transferred to the spot account.

Gate Ecosystem Extension: Polymarket Pre-market Trading Launches

In addition to direct integration with Polymarket prediction markets, Gate launched pre-market trading for the POLYMARKETUSDT perpetual contract in the stocks section for the first time on April 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UTC+8). It supports 1 to 10x long and short positions, helping users set up in advance for market-based price discovery of Polymarket’s company valuation.

Summary

With Gate officially integrating Polymarket, prediction markets are heading toward mainstream adoption at an unprecedented pace. From sports events to Federal Reserve rate decisions, from geopolitical conflicts to macroeconomic policy, global trending events are being priced in real time on Polymarket. As the world’s first centralized exchange to integrate Polymarket, Gate not only provides users with a one-stop entry point to prediction markets, but also continuously expands the boundaries of event-driven trading through innovative products such as pre-market trading. Whether you want to participate in predictions of trending events or want to capture long-term opportunities in the prediction market sector, Gate x Polymarket is worth your continued attention.