Trump's threats escalate! The Asia-Pacific stock markets all plummeted, and the A-shares again saw 4,300 companies decline.

Ask AI · How Trump’s Military Threats Are Disrupting the Global Energy Market Landscape?

I’m really overwhelmed! Just finished a month of bipolar, rollercoaster March, and now April has started with the same antics. Not only are investors and analysts exhausted, but writers are too—good news one day, bad news the next, up one day, down the next. When will it end? It feels more chaotic than last year’s tariff battles.

Yesterday, Trump stated that the U.S. would end its conflict with Iran within “two to three weeks,” possibly reaching an agreement before then. The market initially expected Trump to signal an end to the conflict this morning, with oil prices dropping sharply before the market opened. But in reality, he suggested the conflict might escalate, claiming the U.S. could launch a very intense strike against Iran within the next two to three weeks, and warned that if no deal is reached, Iran’s power plants could become targets.

Right after Trump spoke, oil prices surged, and precious metals plummeted. As of this report, Brent crude futures rose by 6.71% to $107.87 per barrel. Spot gold fell by 4% intra-day to $4,563.85 per ounce; spot silver dropped below $70 per ounce, down 6.85% for the day.

The Japanese and Korean stock markets opened higher, indicating initial market optimism, but after Trump’s remarks, they plunged. The A-shares opened lower after a rise yesterday, and then also tumbled. What’s more uncomfortable is that the A-shares didn’t rise as much as the Japanese and Korean markets yesterday, and today they fell significantly. Additionally, 4,300 stocks declined, with trading volume shrinking to 1.85 trillion yuan.

Specifically, Trump’s speech mainly covered four points: explaining the rationale for military action, emphasizing how successful the military operations could be, the Strait of Hormuz, and applying further pressure.

Trump’s stance on the Strait of Hormuz is particularly noteworthy. Iran’s reliance on this strait is tied to oil prices and its strategic importance. Trump stated that the U.S. almost does not import oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and countries that do must ensure the passage is secure—they should take the lead in protecting it. He said the conflict would resolve itself once the Strait reopens because Iran wants to sell oil. At that point, energy prices will quickly fall, and stock prices will rebound.

Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was caused by the U.S. and Iran, Trump’s point isn’t wrong—once Trump ends the war, Iran will eventually allow some passage, especially since they’ve started charging fees. Trump likely prefers a more dignified exit, such as reaching an agreement.

But regardless of whether it’s war or peace, Trump’s “two to three weeks” is not only his timeline but also the last breathing space for the global economy. If it drags on longer, some countries may not be able to withstand it.

Now, let’s look at other major news today:

• After NATO allies refused to help combat Iran, U.S. President Trump criticized NATO as a “paper tiger” and said he is “seriously considering” withdrawing the U.S. from NATO. UK Prime Minister Sunak responded that the UK will stick to its own national interests regarding Iran and will not get involved in the conflict.

• Iran’s threat to impose indefinite control over the Strait of Hormuz is prompting many Gulf countries to reconsider costly oil pipeline plans to bypass this critical maritime chokepoint, ensuring continued exports of oil and natural gas. However, even building pipelines in the Gulf region won’t solve the urgent short-term crisis.

• According to reports, nearly half of the planned data center projects in the U.S. this year are likely to be delayed or canceled, mainly due to shortages of transformers, power supplies, batteries, and other electrical equipment. Specifically, by 2026, the U.S. plans to bring about 12 gigawatts of data center capacity online, but only about one-third are currently under construction.

• The hot city real estate markets experienced their usual “small spring” in March. Data shows that in Shanghai, second-hand home transactions reached 31k units, up 6% year-over-year. In Guangzhou, second-hand residential transactions exceeded 10,000 units, more than 1.4 times the previous month. Beijing’s second-hand residential transactions hit 19.9k units, a 15-month high.

• U.S. March ADP employment increased by 62k, far exceeding the market expectation of 40k. U.S. retail sales in February rose 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing economists’ forecast of 0.5%, the largest increase since July 2025; core retail sales increased by 0.5%, the highest in eight months. U.S. manufacturing PMI in March rose to 52.7, a new high since August 2022. Multiple indicators suggest the U.S. economy remains resilient.

• Iran: Non-aggressive ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination.

Finally, a quick look at the market: the Shanghai Composite fell 0.74%, the ChiNext Index dropped 2.31%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.70%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.63%.

By industry, oil and petrochemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and coal led the gains, while computing, electronics, media, conglomerates, and real estate lagged.

Risk reminder:

Stock markets are risky; investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Readers should think independently.