4.17 Bole Morning Analysis

Currently, the bullish and bearish factors in the gold market are intensifying, showing an overall pattern of oscillation with intertwined ups and downs. From the bearish side, the Middle East geopolitical conflict is gradually easing, and the risk aversion sentiment previously driven by tense situations is continuing to cool down, significantly weakening gold’s safe-haven buying momentum; at the same time, the latest U.S. inflation data shows strong resilience, with the inflation decline slower than market expectations, directly leading to continued tightening of market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and an increased anticipation of an extended rate hike cycle, raising the cost of holding gold and exerting short-term pressure on gold prices.
However, from the support perspective, the U.S. dollar index is showing a weak trend, combined with the market not fully dismissing the Fed’s expectation of rate cuts within the year, still providing solid support for gold prices. Overall, in the short term, gold prices lack the momentum for a large-scale upward or downward move, likely maintaining a high-range oscillation. Going forward, close attention should be paid to developments in Middle East tensions, U.S. inflation, and Fed policy statements, as these factors will be key to breaking the current oscillation pattern.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices remain in a high-level oscillation state, with prices fluctuating narrowly around 4795 in the early trading session. On the daily chart, gold prices are consolidating at high levels, ending with a small bearish candlestick. Although the short-term upward momentum has slowed, the overall upward channel remains intact, and the medium-term bullish trend has not changed, with the core bullish pattern still stable.
In terms of support and resistance in the short term, the 4770 level provides strong support, tested multiple times without effective breakdown, becoming an important short-term defense level for gold prices; the 15-minute chart shows that gold has completed stabilization after a decline, entering a short-term oscillation with a slight upward bias, and it is highly likely to rebound and recover based on key support levels, with attention to the breakthrough of upper resistance levels.
Trading Suggestions
For intraday trading, follow the core idea of buying on dips, relying on strong support below to gradually build long positions, with strict control over position size and risk:
1. Lightly try long positions: when gold falls back to the 4785-4790 range, consider entering long positions lightly;
2. Gradually add to long positions: if gold further declines to the 4775-4785 range, add to longs in batches accordingly;
3. Extreme averaging down: focus on opportunities to add longs around the 4765-4775 range, and watch for stabilization signals near 4755 in extreme conditions, then add positions after stabilization.
Target levels: the first short-term target is around 4820-4830; if gold can break through this resistance zone smoothly, hold further and aim for the 4855 level.
Personal Trend Judgment
Currently, gold prices are in a high-level oscillation stage driven by both fundamentals and technical factors. The medium-term bullish trend remains unchanged, but the short-term pace has slowed due to the Fed’s policy expectations disturbance. Blindly chasing highs is not recommended; buying on dips is a more prudent trading strategy. Strict stop-loss settings are necessary to guard against sudden geopolitical or inflation data changes that could trigger market volatility. If the key support at 4755 is effectively broken, traders should promptly adjust their trading approach to avoid risks of a one-sided decline. #黄金 #Spot Gold#黄金 #外汇黄金