Gate integrates Polymarket prediction market: Launch a new mode for event odds/probability trading

The Shift from Price-Oriented to Event-Oriented

Early crypto trading mainly revolved around asset price fluctuations, with investors making decisions based on technical analysis, trend interpretation, and fundamental information. As the market matured, the trading logic began to change, with some markets gradually shifting focus from the price itself to event outcomes, such as policy directions, economic data, or major public events. This model shifts the core of trading to judgments about the likelihood of future occurrences.

The Pricing Logic of Prediction Markets

The essence of prediction markets is converting the collective view of the future into tradable prices. As participants continue buying and selling, the price gradually forms a market consensus.

For example, if the trading price of an event is close to 70%, it usually indicates that the market collectively believes there is a high probability of the event occurring. This mechanism makes the price not only meaningful for trading but also a result of information integration.

Under this framework, the market serves two functions:

1. Providing trading opportunities
2. Aggregating multiple viewpoints

How Information Differences Create Opportunities

The volatility in prediction markets stems from judgment gaps among participants. Different sources of information, analysis methods, and viewpoints lead to diverse expectations.

When the final outcome has not yet been determined, new information often causes rapid changes in price trends. For traders, these changes present opportunities to enter or exit the market. Therefore, the competitive focus in such markets is not solely on technical analysis but on information mastery and judgment ability.

Diversified Operation Modes Enhance Participation

To lower the entry barrier, some platforms offer different levels of operation modes, allowing various types of users to participate.

1. Intuitive Participation Mode
   Presented with simple interfaces showing event probabilities, users can quickly understand market expectations and make choices, suitable for beginners.

2. Professional Trading Mode
   Provides comprehensive market tools, such as order books and trade data, enabling advanced users to perform more precise operations.

This layered design allows the market to accommodate both novices and professional traders simultaneously.

Basic Process of Participating in Event Trading

Users typically follow a few steps to enter prediction markets:

First, update the app and log into the account; then, access the event market and browse tradable assets; next, choose a direction based on personal judgment and input the trading amount; finally, wait for the event outcome to be announced, with the system completing the settlement.

The overall process combines information analysis with trading operations, making it relatively intuitive.

Combining Centralized and On-Chain Architectures

Some platforms adopt a dual-track design to cater to different user habits. General users can trade via platform accounts using stablecoins, similar to traditional trading platforms; meanwhile, users familiar with blockchain can participate in on-chain trading through Web3 wallets and settle on specific networks. This architecture maintains both convenience and decentralization features.

Real-Time Data Enhances Market Transparency

To improve decision-making efficiency, platforms often integrate multiple data tools, including price changes, probability fluctuations, order book depth, and trade records. With this information, traders can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the market state. The process from opening a position to settlement is highly automated, making operations smoother.

Potential Development of Prediction Markets

As market participation increases, the influence of prediction markets may continue to expand. Prices reflect not only trading outcomes but also serve as real-time indicators of market expectations. In the future, such markets could further integrate with data analytics, financial systems, and blockchain technology, forming new sources of information and trading foundations.

Summary

Prediction markets introduce a different mindset to crypto trading compared to traditional price-oriented approaches. Through event probability pricing, markets can simultaneously facilitate trading and information aggregation. With intuitive operation, diverse participation methods, and technological architecture, this model is gradually lowering the usage threshold. As markets and technology continue to evolve, prediction markets are expected to become an important part of the crypto ecosystem, offering traders new perspectives and ways to participate.