The past few years' decline in the U.S. stock market has a characteristic: most of the rebound has been V-shaped, rather than bottoming out for a long time with multiple tests or dips. This year’s March war, last April’s tariff battles, August 2024’s carry trade, etc. Essentially, these are localized negative shocks caused by news impacts when the fundamentals are sound. Once the news changes, the market quickly returns to the main growth trend.

Therefore, as long as the fundamentals of the U.S. stock market are sound, holding long-term is the top priority. Trying to do T+0 trading requires abandoning the idea of buying at the bottom. For example, Micron within half a month—if you still remember—what about the impact of Google’s latest architecture on storage? Micron’s unexpectedly high capital expenditure, all of these can trigger panic when overly optimistic. Yet, in just 11 trading days, it returned near all-time highs.
In February and March this year, many believed that AI was repeating the 2000 internet bubble crash scenario.
So, what should we look at? One is macro fundamentals, which means looking at U.S. GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, and inflation—basic economic data. No consecutive negative GDP quarters and no expectations of continuous rate hikes mean the macro is fine.
On the industry side, look at quarterly earnings reports of leading companies. If earnings are generally in line with expectations, there won’t be a real crash. Every deep dip can instead be an opportunity to buy and do T+0 trading, and you should abandon the idea of buying at the absolute bottom.
Only if several leading companies report worse-than-expected earnings should you be truly cautious—perhaps the industry is overheating and it’s time to reduce positions.