I just read an interesting analysis from Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer about where we stand in the market cycle. Matt Hougan has a perspective worth considering, especially if we think of mid-2026 as a turning point.

What he's saying is quite clear: although the cryptocurrency market has been quite challenging throughout much of 2025, with altcoins dropping more than 60%, Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient. And that's no coincidence. Corporations and ETFs have been steadily buying, preventing BTC from suffering more severe declines.

Right now, Hougan describes the situation as a "narrow bottom." Basically, it means there are weak ETF flows and little retail participation. In other words, we're in a phase where the market is consolidating forces. His expectation is that Bitcoin will move sideways between $75,000 and $100,000 during this first half of the year. And looking at current prices, that makes sense.

What caught my attention most is his long-term projection. Hougan believes Bitcoin could reach approximately $6.5 million per coin over the next 20 years. But here’s the important part: this isn’t based on accelerated adoption or some utopian scenario. It’s simpler than that. It’s about the ongoing growth of global debt, currency issuance, and devaluation of fiat currencies. Bitcoin as an improved version of gold, essentially.

What Hougan emphasizes is that central banks are just beginning to understand the role Bitcoin can play in this context. His conclusion is straightforward: as long as the future doesn’t differ significantly from the last 15 years, we can achieve those targets. It’s only a matter of time. That sounds like confidence grounded in macroeconomic trends, not speculation.