Given the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook is highly likely to remain under downward pressure and trade on the weaker side. The U.S. military blockade will begin at 22:00 on the 13th Beijing time. The market has shifted from “ceasefire trading” to “conflict repricing.” Bitcoin has pulled back from above $73,000 to around $70,500, and long positions have been liquidated heavily. Crude oil prices surged by more than 10% to $105 per barrel, exerting downward pressure on crypto assets through three channels: pushing up inflation expectations, weakening the likelihood of rate cuts, and raising miners’ costs. The $70,000 level is facing a test right now; if it breaks, the next support lies in the $65,000–$67,000 range.

The medium-term trend depends largely on how long the blockade lasts and the intensity of Iran’s retaliation. Under the baseline scenario (limited friction, probability of about 50–60%), Bitcoin will trade in a choppy consolidation as inflation expectations and the geopolitical risk premium tug against each other, with the overall bias remaining weak. If the situation escalates into a full-scale conflict, it could dip further to lower levels. If it unexpectedly eases quickly, it may rebound to $75,000–$78,000. Key observation points include the strait’s actual transit conditions, the U.S. Dollar Index, the Federal Reserve’s statements on inflation, and whether Iran’s “cryptocurrency passage fee” story truly forms structural buy-side support.#加密市场小幅下跌 $BTC