Assets Direction Entry Reference Take Profit Target Stop Loss Reference

BTC Short 71,800 - 72,000 70,500 → 70,000 72,500

BTC Long 70,300 - 70,500 71,500 → 72,000 69,900

ETH Short 2,230 - 2,250 2,170 → 2,140 2,280

ETH Long 2,160 - 2,180 2,220 → 2,250 2,140

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📌 1. Geopolitics: High risk, bears favored

The situation is escalating rather than easing.

· Negotiation Breakdown: The US-Iran talks ended on April 12 without any agreement, with fundamental disagreements remaining.

· Confrontation Escalation: The next day, U.S. President Trump threatened to "block" the Strait of Hormuz; Iran’s Navy Commander declared the strait under Iranian control.

· Military Action: The U.S. is considering a "limited military strike" plan, making the risk of full-scale conflict real.

Overall, the geopolitical tone is bearish, and market risk aversion has clearly increased.

🐳 2. On-chain Data: Bearish signals strengthen, bullish logic unverified

· Whale Movements: The previous analysis mentioned a whale holding ETH with 20x leverage in profit; this round, it quietly took profits and exited, turning to short. The so-called "smart money" whales have not sold significantly during recent turbulence, but buying momentum has weakened. Main capital behavior is bearish.

· Long/Short Ratio and Funding Rates: Mainstream contract funding rates are generally negative (e.g., BTC at -0.0028%), indicating lower cost to short than to long, with a market bias toward bears. Short liquidations are slightly higher than longs, but BTC price continues to decline, indicating bears dominate the market.

· Macro Environment: Countries like Vietnam extended fuel tax exemptions, directly proving that high international oil prices threaten economic stability in multiple countries, with inflation risks suppressing risk assets.

📊 3. Technical Analysis: Support and resistance, downside space opened

· BTC Daily Chart: Price was rejected at the resistance zone of $73,750-$74,000, forming a classic failed breakout pattern with heavy selling pressure above. The current price has broken below the previously emphasized key support at $73,000, now near $71,200. Based on the provided screenshot (e.g., BTC daily chart), MACD has formed a death cross at high levels, with red momentum bars appearing, signaling clear bearishness.

· ETH Daily Chart: Price sharply retreated from the $2,300 resistance, falling to around $2,200, stuck in a narrow range of $2,000-$2,300. MACD also formed a death cross and diverges downward; KDJ indicator has entered oversold territory, indicating limited rebound potential.

💎 4. Core Conclusions and Trading Recommendations

The current market is in a state of "technical weakness + high geopolitical risk," dominated by negative factors.

· Core Strategy: Focus on shorting, with occasional long positions as a supplement.

· Operation Priority: Look for shorting opportunities near key resistance levels, which remains the more prudent strategy.

· Long Position Logic: Going long is a "counter-trend trade" and requires extreme caution. Only if the price rapidly and panic-wise breaks below key psychological levels (e.g., $70,000), releasing short-term selling momentum, can small positions be considered for technical rebounds. Otherwise, avoid entering.

· Risk Warning: The market is currently driven by news, reducing the effectiveness of technical analysis. Any sudden news about US-Iran conflict (ceasefire, agreement, etc.) could instantly reverse the market. Set strict stop-loss orders to prevent sharp reversals.

This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously based on your own risk tolerance. $ETH