#加密市场小幅下跌 #Gate13周年Dr.Han公开信

Currently, ETH is in a structural contradiction zone characterized by macro suppression, strong fundamentals support, and technical oscillation leaning weak. In the short term, focus on range-bound oscillation and buying the dips; in the medium term, wait for three major turning points: the Pectra upgrade implementation, signals of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and ETF capital inflows; in the long term, the core logic of deflation through staking and ecological monopoly remains unchanged, and extreme dips are strategic opportunities for deployment.

Macro and capital factors (determine trend direction)

• Macro suppression (main negative factor)
The Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations have been delayed to the second half of the year, the dollar is strengthening, real interest rates are high, and the overall risk appetite in the crypto market is low. Middle East geopolitical tensions and inflation fluctuations increase risk asset volatility, ETH correlates with US stocks, and BTC weakens. Without strong macro catalysts in April, the market mainly consolidates and tests lows.

Oscillating convergence, gradually lowering highs and lows, a bearish structure.

◦ Deflation + staking lock-up: EIP-1559 continues to burn tokens, staking + institutional holdings lock over 35% of circulating supply, supply continues to shrink.

◦ Ecological monopoly: DeFi TVL rebounds, RWA (Real World Assets) account for over 70%, Layer2 explosion (EEZ upgrade unifies Layer2 ecosystem).

• Range: $2080—$2220 for high selling and low buying

• Long position: rebound and stabilize at 2080—2100, volume decreases, stop loss at 2050, target 2180—2200

• Short position: encounter resistance at 2200—2220 during rebound, weak volume, stop loss at 2250, target 2120—2100

• Position: single direction ≤15%, leverage ≤3x, no overnight heavy positions

• Trade within the 2080—2220 range, leaning bearish.

• Wait for the upgrade implementation + macro easing + capital inflow, breaking through 2300 opens upward space.

• Deflation through staking + ecological monopoly, ETH remains the second core in crypto, below $2000 is a strategic low-entry zone.

Currently, it’s a phase for profit-taking and patience testing—avoid aggressive moves and panic, follow rules, and increase positions once the trend becomes clear.