Changjiang Nonferrous: On the 2nd, aluminum oxide futures prices fell by 1.28% with overall trading activity remaining sluggish throughout the day

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Longjiang Nonferrous Network, April 2nd: All aluminum oxide contracts continued to decline today, with the main month 2605 contract extending its downward trend, mainly fluctuating weakly during the session; as of 15:00 closing, the main month 2605 contract for aluminum oxide was at 2,767 yuan, down 36 yuan, a decrease of 1.28%; the accumulated trading volume of the weighted contract was 362,990 lots, a decrease of 76,502 lots from the previous trading day, a drop of 17.41%; open interest was 465,813 lots, an increase of 1,032 lots, up 0.22%.

Today, domestic spot prices for aluminum oxide remained stable; according to CCMN data from Longjiang Nonferrous, on April 2nd, aluminum oxide prices in South China ranged between 2,770 and 2,820 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; in East China, prices ranged between 2,760 and 2,780 yuan per ton, unchanged; in Southwest China, prices ranged between 2,815 and 2,855 yuan per ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, prices ranged between 3,095 and 3,135 yuan per ton, unchanged.

Today, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum oxide futures main contract 2605 experienced weak oscillation, closing down 1.28% during the day, while domestic spot prices remained stable.

On the macro front, U.S. President Trump delivered a nationwide speech from the White House at 9:00 Beijing time on Thursday (April 2nd), stating that the Iran war is nearing its end, and the U.S. will carry out “very intense” strikes within the next two to three weeks. This statement dampened market risk appetite, with domestic stocks turning red, the dollar regaining strength, and the nonferrous metals sector showing mixed gains and losses. Coupled with the weak fundamentals of aluminum oxide itself and the persistent oversupply, the market, amid geopolitical uncertainties and excess pressure, entered a phase of weak oscillation and adjustment.

Fundamentally, according to the International Aluminum Institute (IAI), global aluminum oxide production in February 2026 was 11.82M tons. Production cuts at Middle Eastern electrolytic aluminum plants and Strait blockades have led to oversupply of overseas aluminum oxide. It is expected that from mid-April, imported sources will arrive gradually, increasing domestic supply pressure. Domestic capacity utilization remains generally stable; however, maintenance at aluminum oxide plants in Guizhou at the end of the month may cause short-term slight capacity decline, but the long-term oversupply outlook remains unchanged, with social inventories continuing to accumulate. The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum oxide futures warehouse stocks are 420k tons (up 605 tons), and factory stocks are 2,700 tons (unchanged), with upward pressure still present. On the consumption side, there is a clear divergence; high warehouse profits encourage large volumes of spot material to flow into delivery warehouses, tightening market liquidity, and some regional spot prices at high levels suppress downstream consumption. In the spot market, as the futures prices continue to weaken, sellers’ willingness to sell increases, mainly driven by immediate demand from downstream buyers. In the afternoon, both buyers and sellers adopted a wait-and-see attitude, market trading was sluggish, with only occasional low-priced transactions, and overall trading activity remained weak throughout the day.

Overall, the oversupply of overseas aluminum oxide capacity is intensifying concerns about domestic supply surplus. Coupled with high domestic inventories and upcoming new capacity releases, supply pressure is increasing, putting significant downward pressure on aluminum oxide prices. However, costs supported by policies on Guinea ore and high freight rates provide some price support, and aluminum oxide remains in a tug-of-war between supply and costs, with expectations of mainly oscillating under pressure.

Longjiang Nonferrous Metals Network www.ccmn.cn Phone: 0592-5668838

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Editor: Li Tiemin