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Recently, signs have emerged that the market is about to make a major shift. The geopolitical tensions around Iran are no longer just temporary news; they are increasingly likely to have a lasting impact on the global inflation structure.
Looking back, the past few years have been an era of "cheap money." Low interest rate environments were the norm, and liquidity was abundant. But that era is clearly coming to an end.
As geopolitical risks with Iran increase, energy prices are structurally pressured to rise. This is not just a spike (a temporary jump), but could form a new "floor" for inflation. Disruptions in supply chains, rising transportation costs, and the resulting broad inflationary pressures. When these factors converge, central banks will inevitably have to change their monetary policies.
This marks a major turning point for the cryptocurrency market. In an environment of low interest rates and unlimited liquidity, capital flows into risk assets automatically. But if structural inflation and rising interest rate pressures become entrenched, investment decisions will fundamentally change.
I believe market participants are beginning to prepare to change course because of this backdrop. It’s not just a cycle shift; movements are starting to reflect a transformation in the macro environment itself.