(International Observation) Under the shadow of the Hormuz, Southeast Asian energy security is under pressure

China News Service, Jakarta, April 1 — Title: Under the Shadow of the Strait of Hormuz, Southeast Asia’s Energy Security Faces Pressure

China News Service Reporter Li Zhiquan

Fluctuations in oil prices are being transformed from numbers in the news into real pressure on the streets of Southeast Asia.

In recent times, expectations of rising international oil prices have continued to ferment across Southeast Asia. Governments in many Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia, have repeatedly “stabilized expectations,” emphasizing that fuel inventories are sufficient. But behind these frequent statements, risks have not disappeared— as tensions in the Middle East intensify and spill over, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy chokepoint, is shrouded in shadow.

This impact arrives directly. Starting April 1, Indonesia will impose limits on subsidized fuel, and private cars’ daily refueling volume may not exceed 50 liters. Behind this “mild” policy is, in essence, an early hedge against potential supply-demand imbalances. In Manila, Philippines, and Hanoi, Vietnam, passenger transport drivers report that their income can no longer offset fuel expenses; in some areas, passenger fares have been raised noticeably, reshaping ordinary people’s household ledgers.

Under mounting pressure, countries are quickly stepping up their responses. Indonesia has rolled out a package of measures—including one day a week of working from home and reducing official travel—to cut fuel consumption, while also expanding crude oil import channels. Philippine President Marcos signed an executive order announcing that the whole country has entered an energy emergency. Thailand, meanwhile, has tapped its fuel fund to stabilize oil prices and is looking for alternative procurement sources. These “extraordinary measures” already show how urgent the situation is.

At the same time, the shock is beginning to spill over. Rising transportation costs combined with uncertainty are affecting tourism and the service industry; foreign tourist numbers are falling, and the sector is cooling. Energy concerns are spreading from fuel stations to broader areas of economic operation.

Why is Southeast Asia so sensitive? The answer is not complicated, but it is severe enough—structure.

The Strait of Hormuz is the only sea route connecting the Persian Gulf to the outside world. Once turbulence occurs, the impact will be rapidly amplified and transmitted. The Philippines and Vietnam are highly dependent on the Middle East for crude oil imports, while Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand are also closely linked to the Middle East for refined fuel supplies.

This means that every instance of instability in the Strait of Hormuz will translate into an upward shift in cost curves across Southeast Asia.

Greater underlying pressure is spreading downstream along the industrial chain. Rising oil prices increase the costs of production inputs such as fertilizers, with agriculture hit first. Then, shipping reroutes, longer transportation times, and rising insurance expenses further drive up export costs. Under “rising costs and shrinking profits,” economic resilience is facing a test.

Countries are also accelerating adjustments. Taking Indonesia as an example, starting July 1 it will implement the B50 biodiesel policy (, meaning diesel blended with 50% palm oil ), and promote the electrification of about 120 million fuel-powered motorcycles. Vietnam is speeding up its liquefied natural gas deployment. The Philippines is moving forward with diversifying energy sources. Thailand is improving its reserve and price regulation mechanisms.

Although the paths differ, the direction is consistent—moving away from a high dependence on a single energy source.

However, the transition cannot be completed overnight. In the short term, Southeast Asia still finds it difficult to shake off external energy shocks. With high oil prices, high interest rates, and exchange-rate fluctuations all compounding, risks of slower growth and rising inflation are building up.

It can be expected that, against the backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz shadow that is hard to dispel quickly, what Southeast Asia faces is not just one round of oil-price fluctuations, but a test of its energy structure. When external shocks become the norm, how to enhance their own ability to withstand shocks is becoming a real question facing all countries. (End)