Industrial silicon futures and spot prices diverge and oscillate, building a bottom; supply and demand negotiations await a breakthrough.

This week’s market presents a triple game pattern of “cost support moving up, supply contraction materializing, and weak demand recovery.” Looking ahead, it is expected that short-term industrial silicon prices will remain volatile with a bottoming trend. Limited upward momentum: major factories in Xinjiang will gradually resume production, releasing supply pressure, while the operating load of polysilicon and organic silicon will decline, suppressing demand growth; downward space is also limited: during the southwest dry season, high costs build a solid bottom, and futures prices quickly rebound after dropping to 8,200 yuan/ton, indicating effective cost support. It is expected that next week’s main contract will fluctuate within a narrow range, with limited gains and losses; the spot market will continue to operate steadily. Key focus on the pace of resumption of production at major Xinjiang factories and the progress of polysilicon inventory destocking. (Antaike)