Recent Bitcoin market developments have sparked interesting analysis. According to analysts, the timing of reaching the bottom varies significantly depending on the currency denomination.

When viewed in USD, a decline until the end of 2026 is predicted, but the story changes when evaluated in gold. Ronnie Szuter, research director at a major Brazilian exchange, analyzes that if we use the gold-denominated Bitcoin price as an indicator, the market bottom could occur as early as next month. Bitcoin hit its all-time high against gold in January 2025, and applying the same 12-13 month cycle suggests the bottom around February 2026, with a recovery starting in March.

This divergence actually reflects macroeconomic turmoil. Since the Trump administration took office, aggressive tariffs, conflicts among U.S. agencies, and tensions with China and Iran have escalated. The global uncertainty is so high that it can be measured with an index. As a result, risk-averse capital is flowing out of Bitcoin. Since November, approximately $7.8 billion has exited spot Bitcoin ETFs, accounting for about 12% of the total $61.6 billion.

However, there's an important point that must not be overlooked. While fear-driven selling continues, large investors, or whales, see this decline as an opportunity to buy more. The major investment firm in Abu Dhabi increased its exposure to physical Bitcoin ETFs in mid-February, which reflects this mindset.

Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $73.03k. Szuter advises investors to build positions calmly. By utilizing dollar-cost averaging, they can take advantage of the current market fear and avoid timing issues. As he puts it, statistically, we are likely in the zone where the best average price is being formed.

Speaking of which, SpaceX's moves are also worth noting. Despite reporting a loss of about $5 billion in 2025, the company still holds approximately 8,285 Bitcoins worth about $603 million. The shift from a profit of around $8 billion the previous year to a deficit is reportedly due to the costs associated with integrating xAI, but they continue to hold Bitcoin as a financial asset. Not changing their holdings after mid-2024 may be a sign of their plans for an upcoming IPO.

Ultimately, market opinions are divided, but looking at the actions of major players shows that some see this decline as an opportunity. Between fear and opportunity, the market is moving.